Tagged: statistics

Big Data is the BuzzWord. Can We Trust Regression in Amenity Valuation? 14

Can We Trust Regression…

I would like to give a background as to what prompted this article. A few years back, word on the street was that the Collateral Underwriter was going to be using big data collected directly from our reports from the inception of UAD to aid in determining what should be “reasonable adjustments”. In order to be preemptive, I consulted an acquaintance of mine who just so happened to have a PhD in Statistics from Princeton. We worked through a number of real case scenario data sets to try and figure out if there was a way I could use regression...

Property Selection for analysis & Statistics in Appraisals - Appraisers Blogs 10

Property Selection for Analysis & Statistics

The importance of proper property selection and ‘statistics’ in appraisals… Appraisers, I would like to direct you to info written by Mr. George Dell in his latest blog post circulated on July 3, 2019. This is one of the best explanations I’ve seen him write on this topic, of how to select and analyze properties when doing appraisals, and why correct ‘statistics’ presented in reports is important. I first became aware of the importance of proper property selection and ‘statistics’ when I attended an appraiser’s training class in 2008 in Las Vegas. The primary speakers were Mr. David Braun and Mr. Patrick...

Should Appraisers Study Statistics? - Beyond the Old Inferential Statistics 11

Should Appraisers Study Statistics?

Yet what was (and still is) presented in appraiser education is the old inferential statistics. Difficult statistics. Convoluted statistics. Statistics for appraisers started to become a hot topic some 15+ years ago. I was more involved with the Appraisal Institute then, and often argued that with the changes in data sources — appraisers would have to learn to apply statistics. Around 2003, the AQB (Appraiser Qualifications Board) revised qualifying education to include the requirement for Finance, Statistics, and Valuation Modeling class. Although I was not solicited to write this class, I was put on the development team, which reviewed and suggested edits and improvements. The...

Skeptics, traditional, vocational or advanced appraiser. What kind are you? 31

What Kind of Appraiser Are You?

Skeptical skeptics are a rare breed. But growing in number… Different appraisers have different attitudes! Some have a lot of experience, others a lot of education. Others emphasize the ‘art’, while others consider themselves ‘quants’. Let’s put aside the ‘art’ versus ‘science’ discussion, where the artists say: “No computer will ever replace the appraiser”, or “No amount of education will ever replace experience”. The other side seems a bit confused. There are traditionalists. And there are the “advanced” appraisers. And there are the “vocational” appraisers, who don’t seem to care much about all of this. They just want to push through as many reports as possible. The skeptics tend to doubt...

Crystal Balls Don’t Work When Reporting Market Trends! Nor does the MC Form! 8

Crystal Ball & PFA Techniques

PFA figures & opaque crystal balls don’t work when reporting market trends! Nor does the MC Form! Appraisers, by now you’ve heard that FNMA finally has decided that their 1004MC form is basically worthless. That form is no longer required in appraisal reports for properties sold to FNMA, as of August 7, 2018. poorly designed form which never has reported accurate trends…However, sidekicks in mortgage lending have not come to the same conclusion… yet. Hopefully, in short time, they will also remove the MC ‘inclusion’ requirement in reports of this awful, poorly designed form which never has reported accurate trends – despite the...

Statistics of Growth & Income : Appraisal Profession to Grow! - Appraisers Blogs 7

Appraisal Profession to Grow!

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Appraisal Profession is expected to grow 14% by 2026 Quick Facts: Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate 2017 Median Pay $54,010 per year $25.97 per hour Typical Entry-Level Education Bachelor’s degree Work Experience in a Related Occupation Long-term on-the-job training Number of Jobs, 2016 80,800 Job Outlook, 2016-26 14% (Faster than average) Employment Change, 2016-26 11,700 Even the Bureau of Labor Statistics understands the importance of the appraiser visiting the property: Although appraisers and assessors of real estate work in offices, they often spend a large part of their day visiting properties....

FHFA Working Paper Credibility Questioned by AGA 10

Working Paper Credibility Questioned

NO REAL ESTATE APPRAISER IN THE COUNTRY IS ALLOWED TO MISS THE MARK BY 7.8% WITHOUT RISKING LOSS OF LICENSE! The Working Paper demonstrates more than anything else, that given an 8-hour work day the computer will take 6 full working days (1.2 working weeks) to arrive at a result that is at best 7.8% error prone. Office of the Director, Honorable Melvin Watt Federal Housing Finance Agency… Dear Sir(s) The American Guild of Appraisers is a Guild within the more than 12 1/2 million members, retirees and family members of our parent union OPEIU, AFL/CIO. In addition to representing...

Pendings Can Reveal Market Trends - Use of Graphs in Appraisal Reports 5

Graphing Using Spreadsheet – Including Pendings

Pendings can reveal market trends, turns and current activity… Appraisers, How many of you use visual graphs in your reports to demonstrate sales (and Pending) trend data? This can be a very important tool to convince your clients that you really have a good understanding of current valuation issues. I am indebted to David Braun, Patrick Egger, Steve Smith, George Dell, Anthony Young and Joe Lynch (among others) for their presentations about this key feature we can utilize. Frankly, using spreadsheets and their built-in graphing functions is something every appraiser should learn. I bring this up because an appraiser peer was...

An Appraisal Profession Tsunami is Coming 16

An Appraisal Profession Tsunami is Coming

TSUNAMI! Before the Internet and YouTube, most of us read about or saw a few pictures of Tsunami’s in books. Reading about a tsunami though, will never be the same as actually being in a tsunami, or seeing a video of a tsunami. A YouTube video of the Japanese tsunami of 2011 truly captures what a tsunami is, and how destructive it can be. If you have never seen that video, take a look at it below. People die in tsunamis. Tsunami death pictures can be found all over the internet. But who were those people and why did they...

The Realities of Regression - Imagecredit Flickr - Walfer X 6

The Realities of Regression

The use of Fannie Mae’s Collateral Underwriter (CU) tool by lenders has created some “hot topics” for appraisers. Durbin is encouraged by the use of CU and thinks it will be a good thing for the appraisal profession. One of these topics is the discussion around how to clearly show the methodology the appraiser used to arrive at the adjustment values. In this presentation Durbin proposes the use of “Regression Analysis” (RA) as a solution to this problem.
Durbin lamented there is a perception that appraisers make subjective, anecdotal, arbitrary, and unscientific adjustments. Now that CU will be looking at adjustments…

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