Human Real Estate Appraisers Unnecessary?
“Real estate appraisers will not exist in the future.” – Reasons Behind Matt Rider’s Projection and Why He’s Wrong
Technology in real estate is advancing to a point where any user can “pull up a property’s data together” and create an appraisal. This is the main point raised by Franklin American Mortgage’s Chief Information Officer Matt Rider in his interview with National Mortgage News. He claimed that as a result, real estate appraisers wouldn’t exist in the future. See interview here.
Rider’s projection seems to be based on society’s increasing dependence on Big Data and artificial intelligence (AI). According to Forbes contributor Jason Mitchell, appraisal methods have remained archaic, as they are still based on assumptions and the appraiser’s subjective opinion. Relying too much on these methods may lead to lost deals or wasted money due to inaccurate estimates. Technology is making it easier to avoid these scenarios. This is the same case across many industries, such as the stock market or any other system where decisions are made based on values.
Another factor that Rider pointed out is age. As of 2016, the Appraisal Institute Research Department revealed that 62% of appraisers in the US are 51 years old and above. The supply of new appraisers is not as high as it used to be, mainly because getting an appraiser certification is harder nowadays. In the 1990s, a real estate license was all that was needed. But now, a four-year college degree became an additional requirement in most states. Although that’s not a bad thing, stricter regulations make real estate appraising less appealing for many job seekers. That’s because with a college degree, you have many other options in terms of a career.
Then there’s the lack of national standard in the appraising processes. Hamp Thomas previously pointed out that it creates discrepancies between valuations, which supports the idea that appraisals are less objective than they should be.
But will all of these really make human real estate appraisers unnecessary? The short answer is no.
…human appraisers deliver more precise information…While automated processes may be efficient, they are not completely reliable for determining actual mortgages. This is where the input of appraisers is crucial. In fact, Marketwatch revealed that appraisers are required for mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Collectively, they provide mortgages that correspond to 70% of the market in terms of loan volume. According to many people in the industry, human appraisers deliver more precise information because they visit development sites and see properties in person.
Appraisers can also use technology to improve their services. In New York City, the country’s most valuable real estate market, the listing platform Streeteasy allows sellers to disclose information about their property. This form of user-generated data is invaluable today not just for buyers and sellers, but also for professionals in the sector. It wasn’t long before the real estate database company Zillow noticed this necessity, and in 2013, Yoreevo notes that the firm bought Streeteasy for $50 million to strengthen their presence in the city and reach more users. Appraisers can take advantage of these tools for the benefit of their clients.
To sum everything up, real estate appraisers won’t be redundant in the coming years. What the industry may see instead are better appraisers as more advanced real estate technologies become available. Computer-generated data is useful in analysis and reporting, but when it comes to understanding the behavior of homeowners, no machine can beat a real person.
Does this mean we won’t need lawyers anymore? Same Tech applies to the legal system.
Actually, AI is already impacting the legal system. Some aspects of discovery are now routinely assessed by computers, lessening the need for paralegals.
Wait till it starts effecting the lawyers, laws will be passed over night.
Yeah, that’s like people looking at Web MD and diagnosing their own illness and maybe even knocking out an appendectomy too.
I draw an analogy that we wouldn’t want the new nurse doing our heart surgery. The bulk of many people’s wealth and savings is invested in their home, so it is critical that professional appraisers consider the body of knowledge and the behavioral aspects of markets and people in our work; I also say that if and when robots buy homes, then an AVMs will suffice. Again, it is imperative that we visit the property, neighborhood, comparable data, and apply human reasoning after interviewing, verifying and analyzing the trends that are in constant motion. Public records aren’t up to date because so many people remodel and some botch the changes they make which can cause functional problems that impact a property’s appeal. Machines, computers, software, gadgets and other useful tools cannot provide security for a loan without an ethical, educated and experienced appraiser! Ask Boeing how software can crash two planes inside of six months. AI is good for some things, but you can’t take the human element out of an objective valuation.
Agree 100%
And someday neither will you sir
He’s right… and lenders could post underwriting requirements to their websites so borrowers could underwrite their own loans. Thus, mortgage brokers and loan officers will not be needed in the future either.
OK, they can absolutely trust me to verify my own income!
Didn’t they not even verify incomes b4 the last crash? What could possible go wrong this time?!
Mortgage loan officers will be ushered out the door perhaps sooner than appraisers. Loan applications can be taken without a loan officer and closed without a loan officer.
Jeff Bodi exactly.
True, the ONLY purpose for mortgage loan officers is to ‘fix’ (misrepresent) buyers with problems or deals that are shaky due to known negative property features that banks won’t ignore. They used to enhance marketing by adding salesman for a particular lenders loan products, but now with the internet they are 100% redundant.
The whole point of mortgage companies IS to commit or facilitate loan fraud while giving the lender plausible deniability.
100% AGREED !!!
AI Bots continue to replace real estate author experts-and they’re the first casualty.
Let’s run an AVM on this joker’s home. How about appraiser’s boycotting this guys mortgage company and see how long it exists.
Tennessee lender to pay $70 mln to end U.S. mortgage fraud case
(Reuters) – Franklin American Mortgage Co agreed to pay $70 million to settle U.S. Department of Justice charges that the Tennessee lender knowingly misled the government about the quality of home loans it submitted for Federal Housing Administration insurance.
The Justice Department said this led to “substantial losses” when the FHA paid insurance claims on hundreds of deficient loans. It said Franklin American’s improper conduct occurred from 2006 to 2012.
“Some of you are constantly hitting this number each and everyday and the company is paying you a bonus for your achievements,” the manager wrote. “EVERYONE needs to be hitting this number each and everyday not just a day here or a day there and we need to be consistent.”
……………………
Consider the source. Franklin American mortgage is a Leopard. They agreed to pay $70 million to the United States Justice sept for what FHA considered mortgage insurance fraud? Going forward No doubt they would like to see the need for Appraisals….go away.
Your post tells us ALL we need to know about the value of Mr. Rider’s opinions.
Agreed !!!
Did you mention mortgage fraud? One of my favorite pastime reading topics.
FBI Financial Institution/Mortgage Fraud News
Yeah, getting rid of one of the independent checks and balances systems we call traditional appraisal service, a real great idea, for some people…
I’m glad I’m in the 62%.
That may work on cookie cutter houses in cookie cutter neighborhoods but try and pull that off on rural areas or with unusual properties.
No it will not work even there. My counties that I work in their information that is provided, which by the way is not provided to the public unless you own the house, has to be disseminated because it’s not cut and dry. Even some Realtors when they bother to even try and obtain it do not fully understand it.
The next crash is coming and the junk products lenders/amc are pushing is going to be one of the root causes. It’s going to be nice not to be blamed, but the will try though.
Or Southwest Portland….or Oregon Coast…or Eastern Orego
That’s just it Annemieke, the system doesn’t work for so called cookie cutter properties either. Just because a property may be a model match (GLA, Br, Ba,), and the computer will say its equal, then why don’t these properties sell for the exact same price?
Seek the truth.
This is the proverbial kool aid. As long as the inflation holds steady, the systems really do work to a statistical margin which can be manageable. Like all inventions, there is a price to be paid with what is left behind. Fairness in monetary exchange, personal liberties, rights, the constitution, sound currency, you know, the old fashioned stuff. What goes around comes around.
True. (myth). That is exactly the thinking that got us into TARP in the first place. I remember a mortgage broker (VERY successful) rationalizing loan fraud by saying the statistical probabilities of a particular loan going bad was low. Further that IF it went bad, having the bank sustain a loss greater than the PMII was low. Then beyond that, typing that loss to a specific loan brokers actions OR an appraiser was even lower.
I didn’t do much work for that broker. His big clients were Aurora, IndyMac and the like. None of whom were ever affected by is statistical rationalizations, right?
Zillow thinks the mortgage amount of our home was the purchase price. So, from day one, it was 20% lower than our purchase price. Repeated emails and calls to get it corrected haven’t worked. But yeah, technology.
Just look at Zillow CEO his own website estimated his home @ 1.3 mil and he closed on it @ 1 mil. Enough said!
Well, sort of. I don’t know if ultra luxury is a fair measuring point for this argument either. Perceived value in use becomes more tangible at luxury price scales. That benefit is so far reaching, it could be social status, actual use, income use, the possibilities are endless. The merit and applicability of big data programs are better measured in lower priced housing categories more firmly tied to actual cost to produce values. But yeah, they’re all missing the mark when goldilocks is not actively draining the yearly 2% and keeping inflation on the rise. Zillow works great in a rising market, despite what you may have heard, they actually did find a way to sell rainbows in the era of big data and big tech.
That guy is an idiot ! All because he lost deals because WE did our jobs.
I really think some of you need to get a clue. We will be largely replaced. There may be some areas that will still require an appraiser to actually go out and write a report. But big data has evolved to the point that a value can be arrived at to within an acceptable margin of error in most cases. Most of us will no longer be needed. The majority of those that remain may be relegated to simple inspections to perhaps provide input into the algorithm. Few actual appraisals as we know them will be required.
Well, there is that. And the argument that lenders are qualifying the person primarily, and they’re free to overspend and take risks as they feel fit, without representation in the ‘acceptable margin of error’ spending bracket. Why bother with checks and balances when the taxpayers pick up the bill. This argument can not be made in such a limited bubble. Let’s correct larger process issues before we move straight out to replacing essential human checks and balances systems. FNMA’s charter is no longer being adhered to and the argument remains that if lenders were lending their own money they’d behave entirely different and be much more risk adverse. If the message is trust technology when such reliance is an obvious sidestep to regulatory protections for consumers and taxpayers, count me out.
No one is arguing that anyone should trust technology. But whether you like it or not, that is what is happening in the world and will continue to happen regardless of your backwards thinking. You don’t have to worry about being counted out. You are already being counted out by reality. SO stop shooting the messenger, it isn’t my message I am simply telling it like it is.
And we’re telling/proving you wrong, so don’t get upset.
Hey OHHH! Yeah, he really did say that. I’ll just take all these longstanding traditional values and throw them in the trash can, find something totally new to live for I guess.
Did you see the Elon Musk interview with Joe Rogan? We’re all cyborgs now.
Keep pretending you are irreplaceable.
I’ve had at least 6 to 12 orders on my desk for the last 20 years, that doesn’t sound replaceable, does it???
What should not be replaced is sound checks and balances systems. In a free market, the people decide. I for one vote for traditional process.
Yes, traditional process would be nice. But we do not have that now. But you do realize that we do not have a free market. Your own post in regards to inflation and Federal Reserve, should be ample enough evidence for you to understand.
We watch this program most nights of the week, commercial free through the entire body of the program, and makes for a good simple educational economic and political lecture which we all can enjoy during dinner. It’s always the same message, which is what I like about these guys, they don’t flip flop for special interests.
In a perfect world absent the tangled webs. Traditional processes are necessary separations of power which our structures of liberty and economic freedom depend on. When it comes to automation, people should be careful what they wish for, or even passively advocate on behalf of.
Nobody is wishing for anything (except for you). I am just stating facts. If you don’t like the facts continue to live with your head up your back side and imagine things are different. Have a nice day it appears you live in an alternate universe devoid of reason and simply want to enjoy your fairy tales.
So I take it you did not bother to watch the video. There is good content there. Again, it is not a fact that we will inevitably be replaced by technology. It is not a fact that we will as a collective move away from sound separation of power and checks and balances systems. If you can’t beat them, insult them and drive them out of business instead. Modern logic.
But your problem is that you don’t understand the difference between advocacy (which you accuse me of) and simply stating facts as they are. Instead you adopt the Lemmings approach and continue to spew on about We the People, when you can’t seem to understand that our own SCOTUS has made corporations into people and given them rights that far exceed your own. I think Oliver Wendell Douglas, that you might be deaf from listening to the flutes playing as you make your “patriotic” rants
You are the one not stating facts, if they were able to replace us, it would have happened by now, computers may replace some large subdivision appraisals, however I continue to do appraisals in subdivisions where there are plenty of sales varying designs, styles, ages and external depreciations.
All you talk about is that it is inevitable that we will be replaced, you couldn’t be further from the truth.
Oh boy, blaming it all on one person? The government became a corporation long before either one of us were born. If you object to the bonds and debt and run away government without fair representation where money is speech, and lenders hold this much sway, you’ll need to adapt the audit the fed argument for a return to a sound monetary policy, resist Citizens United, and other actions. If you’d just watch the video, you’d understand where these positions come from… Be a pal and try being a sliver patriotic, you don’t have to be a republican or democrat to get there. I primarily vote with my wallet, it’s a full time effort to be a contentious ethical consumer. These power structures seem daunting right. They’re folding and being reformed right now, yet again.
you need to read what I wrote instead of reacting to what has been written in response. But that is Okay, this is FaceBook where even the uninformed and ignorant get to spout off.
I’m just accessing via the website. I provided valid counter arguments. It’s not personal but I’m not with the big tech program.
I am way beyond you. You need to catch up. I am simply stating reality, regardless of whether it complies with my wishes or yours.
Tony ( Charles A.?) This is not Facebook at all. It’s a serious real estate appraisal internet blog where in over 8,000 individuals including many government employees and representatives come for appraisal information. We learn others views but also get to share our own.
I don’t always agree with Chris or even Baggs, but I respect their views and commitment to the profession. The last thing anyone can do with credibility is accuse Baggs of being ‘uninformed’.
Like all of us humans, passions and intensity of belief can color our posts sometimes. Speaking for myself, I am going to make greater effort not to insult folks. It decreases my own credibility if I am insulting to my peers.
PS – non appraiser morons, imbeciles and self serving bastards dragging our profession down are an exception.
Agreed. From a 09/30/2015 post here http://appraisersblogs.com/appraisal/free-enterprise-an-appraisal-myth/
More narrowly focused to our profession’s need for C&R fees than to the nation as a whole.
Tony I think we are quibbling over semantics. Technically no one is irreplaceable for anything. We all die and business continues.
The bigger issue is should we be replaced?
We are only ‘replaceable’ by big data to those federal regulatory agencies (including the Treasury Department) or commercial users that have deluded themselves to believe AVMs, hybrids and other assorted happy horse shit is credible.
I guess if all you have to do is click and a big data figure pops up and that’s the final word there will be no need for the AI, TAF, state boards, E&O, loan officers, inspectors, AMC’S or data reviews. Who’s going to get sued and fined then? Hopefully it will be the lenders that rely on the data. There will be no-one to file a complaint against then but them.
Matt Rider is an idiot!
I tested a theory with data and a subject property. Looked at a subdivision, collected all the sales for 18 months. Bracketed the characteristics and the data value came pretty close to the value concluded using 5 current sales. So don’t you think big brother knows that as well? Just try doing what they are and see if you come up with the same conclusion. If so, you know, if not, keep fighting.
Like most self serving, commission dependent opportunists, Mr. Rider doesn’t know his ass from a whole in the wall when it comes to real estate appraisal.
“Then there’s the lack of national standard in the appraising processes. Hamp Thomas previously pointed out that it creates discrepancies between valuations, which supports the idea that appraisals are less objective than they should be.”
I don’t believe Hamp actually said there is a lack of a national standard in the appraising processes. I’m pretty certain Mr. Thomas is familiar with the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice. I suspect he may have been misquoted or taken out of context. USPAP IS the national ‘standard’. It’s just that mortgage flacks don’t like it.
Self serving mortgage interests such as MISMO, or Mr. Rider wage a never ending war to modify, massage, reinterpret and misrepresent all aspects of professional appraisal, but to date they (&AI) have only been successful in getting state approval for variable standards in a very few states.
Let me go out on a limb. There is NOT ONE credibly reliable AVM program in America. NOT ONE. Not CorelaModes RealAVM; Not Zillow, not realty.com and not trulia. Not even FNMAs much vaunted and misused CU “process”.
There is not one USPAP compliant online hybrid appraisal report in America today (based on the 100% inability of ANY such provider to show a completed one here or anywhere else performed for the fees and time periods advertised with them).
Vince, please try your method on 23145 Ocean Avenue, Torrance CA. I used to live there and know its ‘special characteristics’. (1) Built on expansive adobe soil (ALL of it) (2) Pool built in late 1960’s started ‘floating’ and causing cracks under house by 1970 (may be fixed now – who knows but I would think that’s a pretty big deal). Opening the sliding door to family room used to be like a wrestling match. (3) EVERYTHING built across the street on same street sold for 10% to 20% more originally (superior design quality-basic construction probably similar). (4). Municipal airport turning point for departing aircraft is directly over the pool there. (5) Beware, while soil is expansive, it’s actually outside the infamous prehistoric Madrona Marsh soil settlement area (which is more or less S of Calle Mayor and west of Anza) ave. (6) For the purposes of your report assume the fire scorched underside of the eves back in 1968 when the pool accidentally caught fire have been adequately painted over.
This is a middle to moderately higher priced area of S. Torrance
I wish everyone would stop crying about losing deals to cookie cutter market areas. They can do their business without us ! Get over it. Move to an older area !! They can’t get the computers to work in far suburban/rural areas with few sales of every kind of house….example….. appraisal waivers !!!
I agree with this. My whole area is rural, l consider myself lucky if I can find 3-4 comps within 20 miles. There’s no such thing as big data around here.
True, but there is probably a push for appraisal waivers there.
You guys all seem to be fixated on specifics. But the reality is that as long as the value is within a certain margin of error to STATISTICALLY support a value, that is all that matters. We are NOT irreplaceable, anymore than buggy manufacturers or whalers were.
The appraisers function is more than that of just applying a number. Again, arguments in a bubble.
There is no “argument in a bubble” whatever the heck that is. The reality is that for the first time ever, big data has been largely standardized (thanks to our own data being used). The reality is that even today most transactions fall UNDER the de minimus and appraisals are NOT legally required. It is only a matter of time until human input is largely replaced by automated or computerized inputs. It has happened in almost every industry and ours is no exception. Whistle past the grave yard all you want, but we will be largely replaced.
Unusually polarized arguments. Take a second look at why we have regulated banking in the first place, to protect the liquidity of lenders for the benefit of American Citizens. We do not exist to serve lenders, technocrats, or corporate and lender interests. This whole show is about We The People, and always will be until the very last day. As mentioned above, your argument is in a bubble, and falls short as long as the taxpayers are on the hook for this egregious risky behavior of lenders. De minimus is a flexible manipulatable construct, it is not a moral or a value and is not an effective argument point in favor of big tech. The fed manipulates the currency, the demins are only one of many relative measuring points affected by this manipulation. The prosperity through debt program keeps these tech systems running smoothly but obviously, we can’t twist and twist and twist and twist again this many times without consequences. Big data would not carry the same allure or benefit if we had sound currency fixed to silver and gold. The world is what we make of it, stop being a defeatist. Yes, I still whistle past graveyards and talk on a made in America old fashioned phone, use paper, and read books. Big data is a big joke, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. (whistling sounds….)
Dude, I understand fully why we “regulate” the banks. I also fully recognize why we have a government. But unfortunately, WE are not the ones making the rules. You seem to imagine that WE have a voice, but as your own meme suggests – we do not. Government no longer serves the people, it serves the corporations. Why do you think banks were bailed out? Why do you think millions of hard working Americans were left to out in the cold. You also seem to imagine that government is there to protect WE the people, when in fact it only serves to protect the profits generated by corporations. Which is exactly why we, along with millions of other will be replaced by big data, which will render the product we now deliver for a fraction of cost and well within the tolerances of error acceptable to their users. The Golden Rule applies here – he who has the gold makes the rules! And we do NOT have the gold.
I do not need to justify the concept of We The People. Nor should I have to spell out the history lesson you’re apparently begging for. You’re better than that, stop trolling. The government, like the world, is what we make of it.
Wrong !!! The banks would have been rid of us 25 years ago.
Your a fool ! They need and want appraisals, That is why we are still here and always WILL be !!!
Close. The structure of regulatory systems still clings to those traditional policies of checks and balances, separations of power. The powers that be never wanted that and it is We The People whom implemented those process requirements through rules for the government. We have the right to alter and abolish unreasonable governance of all forms.
Who programs those computers? Who operates them? Who profits from that? Follow the money. I’m just saying, as a regular consumer, pinch me if I ever advocate on behalf of blindly trusting lenders and all of their tools and policies without effective checks and balances in place.
The Federal Reserve. 100 years of not being federal, and not having any reserves…
Agreed !
There’s much to what you say about ‘governments’ not serving the People anymore. On the other side of the coin is the absolute necessity, even among scalawags and other professional politicians to be seen as being concerned about the public.
It’s inside this tiny window that opportunity to influence government at all levels, exists.
Speaking of which I want to ask for volunteers to attend Public meetings of the Appraisal Sub Committee quarterly in D.C. at Treasury. Email me mike@mfford.com This is very important. Separate article to follow.
I agree. Those pesky specifics contained in the Preamble to USPAP; the specific definitions; the specific requirements of SR1 and those damned annoying specifics in SR2…not to mention source provider opinions, 50 different sets of state laws and federal regulations.
I remember when I was an agent a couple hundred years ago, we used to walk tract neighborhoods around listings and eyeball houses and opine as to values. Standard 3 BR 1 3/4 ba G2 back then was $27,500 to $30,000 (upper end). Any of us that missed the group consensus by a $1,000 was teased mercilessly. We got it right about 80% to 90% of the time…of course, appraisers didn’t always agree with us. Then again, WE weren’t bound by standards, cash equivalence or concession rules.
What IS that magical variance range? 10%? 25%; OR could it be as much as 50% which is not an unusual spread for the same property when measured by Zillow; Realtor.com, Trulia and one of the other flakey services I can’t recall right now. THEIR range on solidly supported $650k property I appraised was $490k to $790k+. Acceptable ‘statistically’?
Some of you confuse noting something that is happening with being in favor of something that is happening. I have never said I supported us being LARGELY replaced. I have only noted that we are being replaced. That does not mean that I am in favor of it. It does not mean that I think the algorithms that are replacing us are any better. But the bottom line is that banks (and by default the government which they control) do not really give a crap. They would rather keep the appraisal fee as profit for themselves, than worry about making a bad loan based on a bad value. And they will do that by using big data (not Trulia or Zillow) to make those decisions. We are seeing it in appraisal waivers and with all of the various hybrid valuations. It is happening and will continue to happen regardless of how indispensable you imagine our profession as being.
I spoke to a guy in the know from a large national lender. They will NOT be doing hybrids as the appraiser has all the liability…of course. Just wait for the buy backs !!!
Hybrids are going no where….as usual with these fly by night antics from lenders trying to make their money without care or concern for the public….
And no one drive comps, lol, lol, lol Where did half the appraisers go…..those were the idiots that got into our profession by their mommies, daddies, aunts, uncles or cousins who taught them.
I was told by this national lender that that they still see the most absurd appraisals…..and literally said to me…”they have NO idea of what they are doing !”
Still to this day….sad !!!
Wait for the next down turn…its coming…..so why do they need hybrids….hmmmmm.
Excellent points and thanks for clarification Tony.
The issues you raise are exactly the reasons Appraiserfest took a proactive stance on what we CAN do on our own, without waiting for anyone’s approval or permission. That is to approach the consumer direct in all areas in which real estate appraisals are also needed.
The point is not to boycott banks and AMCs. The point is to simply render them irrelevant to the appraisal process by replacing GSE or loan dependent work with consumer-centric work. There is no reason with some prudent planning that the professional real estate appraiser can’t preserve the fundamental principles of our profession OUTSIDE of the automated loan processing industry…and when the Big Data eventually fails the lenders, making them adjust to OUR professional requirements for adequate (HIGH) compensation, PDF delivery reports, and turn around time frames of OUR choosing.
You know what… There are bad doctors, judges, lawyers, police officers, politicians, lenders, real estate agents, etc and yes some appraisers. Does that mean we are all bad? NO we are not! So lets move on and keep on topic Hybrids, PIW’s, hidden AMC fees and the likes.
Not directed at you Chris. And they do keep vigalent on policing the bad ones.
I am sure, Mr. Rider is a smart and knowledgeable person, but I am afraid he is very far away from knowing the appraisal business/process, and most importantly, he does not seem to understand why having a human appraiser is so crucial to avoid another 2008-like crash.
Why would you assume he is either smart or knowledgeable? Nothing cited suggests either. He has a vested interest in manipulating whatever system is in place for verifying values.
During the bubble we were asked to do review appraisals. When we saw how bad, inaccurate or flawed some of the appraisals were and stated so in the review (inaccurate photos, square feet, condition), the company that ordered the appraisal review stated “don’t use us again”. They didn’t want a review, they wanted a rubber stamp to give out the corrupt loan.
Hold on folks as the ride continues….unbridled with no end in site.