Tagged: statistics

Sale Price versus Appraised Value Disconnect

April 10, 2023

Sale Price vs Appraised Value Disconnect

How can it be said that valuing a property lower than its eventual sale price based on current market evidence is tantamount to BIAS? The article titled “FHFA Data Fueling Looks into Appraisal Bias” was in the Inside Mortgage Finance Publications e-newsletter on 4/06/23. The Federal Housing Finance Agency is a is a critical provider of the data necessary for oversight, enforcement and research, FHFA Director Sandra Thompson noted during a discussion in late March. According to aggregate statistics from the Uniform Appraisal Dataset released by the FHFA, roughly 57% of appraisals were above the contract price in 2021. Just...

Appraisal / Appraisal News / Appraisers News / CFPB / Consumer Financial Protection Bureau / Federal Housing Finance Agency

February 21, 2023

Under-Valuations Unrelated to Racial Bias

Under-valuations that more accurately reflect the homes’ “true” value as opposed to the contract price will also alert the buyer, not just the lender, that he or she may be over-paying, which often triggers a renegotiation… when the seller and buyer settle on a new price after the appraisal, the new lower price reduces credit risk, costs to the borrower, and ultimately results in greater wealth for the buyer. The AEI Housing Center recently released an analysis revealing that reports by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and by Brookings, attributing the greater prevalence of under-valuations in home purchase appraisals...

Appraisal / Appraisal News / Appraisers News / Fannie Mae - Freddie Mac / Federal Housing Finance Agency / FHFA

October 27, 2022

UAD Composite Property Data Info Released to the Public

Appraisers, since 2011, the GSEs (called the ‘Enterprises’) have been collecting and analyzing appraisal data using their proprietary Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) which was overlaid on four of the standard GSE appraisal forms, SFR’s and Condo’s only. Ever since then, appraisers and other users have complained that none of that data was available. Well, now it is available, but not highly detailed down to specific properties. See below for the web site link. Some of that data is granular down to specific Census Tracts, which appraisers seldom, if ever, use in their market analysis to determine comparable sales and their...

Appraisal / Appraisal News / Appraisers News / Federal Housing Finance Agency / FHFA / UAD

August 9, 2021

Objective Terminology

Appraisers should avoid using words that lend themselves to bias judgments. Instead, the appraisal report should document objective facts. “Bias” in appraisals has been a ‘hot topic’ around nationwide water coolers since about 2018, and even earlier. The GSE’s are particularly wary of any commentary in appraisal reports that appear to inject ‘bias’ into the value conclusion. In the June ’21 FNMA Appraiser Update newsletter, there is this article: Avoiding problematic phrases Stories in the media about racial bias in appraisals have been on the rise. The Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) expects appraisers to “not perform...

Appraisal / Appraisal News / Appraisers News / Fannie Mae - Freddie Mac / Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice / USPAP

August 19, 2019

Can We Trust Regression…

I would like to give a background as to what prompted this article. A few years back, word on the street was that the Collateral Underwriter was going to be using big data collected directly from our reports from the inception of UAD to aid in determining what should be “reasonable adjustments”. In order to be preemptive, I consulted an acquaintance of mine who just so happened to have a PhD in Statistics from Princeton. We worked through a number of real case scenario data sets to try and figure out if there was a way I could use regression...

AMC / Appraisal / Appraisal Management Companies / Appraisal News / Appraisers News / Collateral Underwriter

July 19, 2019

Property Selection for Analysis & Statistics

The importance of proper property selection and ‘statistics’ in appraisals… Appraisers, I would like to direct you to info written by Mr. George Dell in his latest blog post circulated on July 3, 2019. This is one of the best explanations I’ve seen him write on this topic, of how to select and analyze properties when doing appraisals, and why correct ‘statistics’ presented in reports is important. I first became aware of the importance of proper property selection and ‘statistics’ when I attended an appraiser’s training class in 2008 in Las Vegas. The primary speakers were Mr. David Braun and Mr. Patrick...

Appraisal / Appraisal News / Appraisers News

July 18, 2019

Should Appraisers Study Statistics?

Yet what was (and still is) presented in appraiser education is the old inferential statistics. Difficult statistics. Convoluted statistics. Statistics for appraisers started to become a hot topic some 15+ years ago. I was more involved with the Appraisal Institute then, and often argued that with the changes in data sources — appraisers would have to learn to apply statistics. Around 2003, the AQB (Appraiser Qualifications Board) revised qualifying education to include the requirement for Finance, Statistics, and Valuation Modeling class. Although I was not solicited to write this class, I was put on the development team, which reviewed and suggested edits and improvements. The...

Appraisal / Appraisal News / Appraisers News

Skeptics, traditional, vocational or advanced appraiser. What kind are you?

January 4, 2019

What Kind of Appraiser Are You?

Skeptical skeptics are a rare breed. But growing in number… Different appraisers have different attitudes! Some have a lot of experience, others a lot of education. Others emphasize the ‘art’, while others consider themselves ‘quants’. Let’s put aside the ‘art’ versus ‘science’ discussion, where the artists say: “No computer will ever replace the appraiser”, or “No amount of education will ever replace experience”. The other side seems a bit confused. There are traditionalists. And there are the “advanced” appraisers. And there are the “vocational” appraisers, who don’t seem to care much about all of this. They just want to push through as many reports as possible. The skeptics tend to doubt...

AMC / Appraisal / Appraisal Management Companies / Appraisal News / Appraisers News / Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice

Crystal Balls Don’t Work When Reporting Market Trends! Nor does the MC Form!

August 15, 2018

Crystal Ball & PFA Techniques

PFA figures & opaque crystal balls don’t work when reporting market trends! Nor does the MC Form! Appraisers, by now you’ve heard that FNMA finally has decided that their 1004MC form is basically worthless. That form is no longer required in appraisal reports for properties sold to FNMA, as of August 7, 2018. poorly designed form which never has reported accurate trends…However, sidekicks in mortgage lending have not come to the same conclusion… yet. Hopefully, in short time, they will also remove the MC ‘inclusion’ requirement in reports of this awful, poorly designed form which never has reported accurate trends – despite the...

1004MC / Appraisal / Appraisal News / Appraisers News / Fannie Mae - Freddie Mac / Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice

August 14, 2018

Appraisal Profession to Grow!

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Appraisal Profession is expected to grow 14% by 2026 Quick Facts: Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate 2017 Median Pay $54,010 per year $25.97 per hour Typical Entry-Level Education Bachelor’s degree Work Experience in a Related Occupation Long-term on-the-job training Number of Jobs, 2016 80,800 Job Outlook, 2016-26 14% (Faster than average) Employment Change, 2016-26 11,700 Even the Bureau of Labor Statistics understands the importance of the appraiser visiting the property: Although appraisers and assessors of real estate work in offices, they often spend a large part of their day visiting properties....

Appraisal / Appraisal News / Appraisers News / Video