Professional OPINIONS have value that can never, repeat NEVER be replaced by automation… Earlier this week, George Dell‘s article titled “Why is Residential Appraisal in Trouble?” was published on AppraisersBlogs. Respectfully, George misses or misinterprets a few items. There has been zero evidence that an AVM produces credible approximations of MARKET VALUE consistently or with even an acceptable degree of variance. None. Like George indicates, an AVM is NOT an appraisal. By definition, it is not an appraisal. FIRREA required appraisal standards; NOT banking industry and TAF proposed alternatives. TAF is very far out of line giving AVMs any imprimatur...
Why is Residential Appraisal in trouble? Is Residential Appraisal Finished?… There will soon be no need for residential appraisers. I remember years ago, doing education for my merging AIREA/SREA chapter(s) in San Diego. AVMs were just coming to our attention. I invited a MAI who happened to also be a PhD in economics, Phil Mitchell. The room was full. Someone asked about those “automated algorithmic computer calculated appraisals.” Could a canned program do as well as an appraiser? Without hesitation, he answered: “Not only will these models be able to appraise – they will do it better!” That was 24 years ago. He was right, partially. I...
Why would a professional licensed appraiser not want to be part of the solution? The Appraisal Foundation has posted the National Real Estate Appraiser Job Analysis Study. The survey is to determine the areas that are relevant to our daily functions as appraisers. This is our profession and appraisers are the best source of information on what we do and how we do it. The results will be used to determine the criteria necessary going forward for license examinations. We all have experienced revision requests from a reviewer who does not understand the appraisal process. What about those revision requests...
Are technology companies simply selling a modern day version of a Pet Rock? Technology companies flaunting their real estate valuation products show us lots of pretty color charts and graphs and sell us on their products. But what would happen if someone were to ask a simple question of these technology companies… How did you determine that value? Just imagine for a moment you are testifying in court and counsel asks you how you determined your opinion of value. The appraiser could answer that question without hesitation. Simply, you know what you did. Even follow up questions could be answered...
…the ‘flipper’ realized that the list and contract price was way too high… I just saw an article titled “Realor.com now providing third-party home valuations” about Realtor.com now using a ‘new’ service to provide a home value. Just for grins, I thought I’d do this essay using one of my recent assignments for the case study, which was in Bellingham, WA. The home was undergoing renovations by a ‘flipper’, and it had a signed contract for a high $$ amount. The report was written ‘subject to’ completion of the repairs/renovations. During the initial inspection, the ‘flipper’ was present and doing...
…the federal agencies charged with implementing Title XI of FIRREA have taken steps to limit the number of transactions for which an appraisal is required… Congresswoman Maxine Waters and Congressman William Lacy Clay request a formal study/investigation into Title XI (FIRREA) and the recent dilution of its intent by the Federal Agencies. The letter to Gene Dodaro, Comptroller General, Government Accountability Office, addresses threshold increases, regulatory exemptions, appraisal waivers, the North Dakota appraiser certification waiver and evaluations in lieu of an appraisal. It is clear the Chairwoman of the House Financial Services Committee and Subcommittee Chairman on Housing, Community Development and Insurance...
Analyst software focuses on analysis – sorting, classifying, comparing, and associating data to turn it into useful information… New technologies require new skills. The bad news is that new data science skills are not taught in appraiser education. The good news is that the new technologies are things an appraiser can sell. Let’s look at the good news! Data science skills include the ability to: Identify the relevant data. Turn the data into useful knowledge. Express the analytic flow to a customer. Who can best collect, analyze, and explain an analysis? Well, it takes someone who understands the subject (the market), the analytics (algorithms), and communication (visuals and summaries). Machines...
The safety and soundness of the housing market is the back bone of local economies, the national economy and yes, the international economy. We have barely recovered from the major financial crash of 2007/2008. Let’s not do it again! Last week we shared with you Maxine Waters and Sherrod Brown’s inquiry to the Appraisal Subcommittee inquiring on the parameters used to determine the North Dakota Appraiser Waiver approval. We encouraged each of you to take advantage of the attention on our profession and contact your representatives. VaCAP has sent letters to both the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial...
Over 11,000 appraisers signed that petition… The US Congress completely ignored it and, as a result, The Great Real Estate Depression followed. Déjà vu: Or is it Déjà Poo (I’ve heard this crap before)? The Collective Rot Growing Within the Shadows of the Great Real Estate Depression We are just 11 years past the beginning of the Great Recession. Some estimate the US suffered a $14 trillion loss in wealth. Others estimated the loss as high as $21 trillion. This event is more commonly referred to as The Great Real Estate Depression by those of us who are or were in the real estate industry...
Another Meltdown – The Inevitable Outcome of a White Swan: Why would we allow another Financial Meltdown to occur? …When revenues and profits decline, lenders and financial institutions throw caution to the wind and relax their once prudent lending policies in favor of more aggressive, inclusive policies… Hindsight has taught us that there is no serious consequence to imprudent lending policies. Perhaps a multi million dollar fine is assessed but that is just the small cost of doing business for some violators… Though more common now, especially in Australia, Europe, and Asia, black swans (Cygnus atratus) were once thought to...
