Tagged: regression

Big Data is the BuzzWord. Can We Trust Regression in Amenity Valuation? 13

Can We Trust Regression…

I would like to give a background as to what prompted this article. A few years back, word on the street was that the Collateral Underwriter was going to be using big data collected directly from our reports from the inception of UAD to aid in determining what should be “reasonable adjustments”. In order to be preemptive, I consulted an acquaintance of mine who just so happened to have a PhD in Statistics from Princeton. We worked through a number of real case scenario data sets to try and figure out if there was a way I could use regression...

Hybrids, Invitation to Fraud - The New Subprime Fiasco of This Decade 6

Hybrid Appraisals, Invitation to Fraud

Until FNMA released their version of a test format for hybrids (1004P) there was not one hybrid form appraisal process and online form reporting system found that was not egregiously misleading in the entire country. Not one. Not Clarocity’s, nor Clear Capital’s or Mueller Inc. A “typical hybrid” sample follows. http://appraisersblogs.com/clearval-value-hybrid-appraisal Not those crafted in Hyderabad, Pakistan for $8 Billion for just one year’s Wall Street Investments (as published by Cezary Podkul Wall Street Journal) where the preparers claimed to be able to produce 360+ per day by illegally using broker login credentials from state-licensed brokers in America. The entire...

Protecting Appraisers Against Frivolous & Retaliatory 3rd Party Lawsuits 6

Frivolous & Retaliatory 3rd Party Lawsuits

Appraisers are routinely coerced & intimidated by third parties to violate their independence and integrity… Honorable Committee Members: We are writing to add our voice to that of the Massachusetts Board of Real Estate Appraisers (MBREA is a State Coalition of professional real estate appraisers) in support of each of the above bills. The American Guild of Appraisers is a Guild within the Office Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU) of the AFL-CIO, representing the appraisal and real estate related financial consumer / taxpayer interests of over twelve and a half million AFL-CIO Family Union & Guild Members; their families, retirees...

Should We Real Estate Appraisers Stop Making Adjustments? 39

Should Adjustments Actually Be Done?

How much credit should we give ourselves when it comes to making adjustments? Making adjustments is controversial. USPAP says nothing about adjustments – it does not require us to make them. They are a GSE construct. So, should we real estate appraisers stop making adjustments? Clients pay us for opinions of value, so our adjustments are really opinions based on what the market tells us (or that’s what we should base them on), but they are still opinions we form; they are not facts we find. So, maybe, should we stop making adjustments? We derive our adjustments from sources such...

What Are Recognized Techniques & Methods? Adjustments: Now What? 13

Adjustments: Now What?

So, what are these methods and techniques? We’re told to “support” our adjustments. We hear words like “prove” your adjustments… as if there were some magic formula which can give an exact, correct, and absolutely true number. It used to be so easy… Our trainer gave us a sheet with the “right” adjustments. Simple. USPAP Standards Rule 1-1 says we must be aware of, understand, and correctly employ recognized methods and techniques. What are they? Who recognizes them? How do I apply them? So, what are these methods and techniques? Let’s look. In The Appraisal of Real Estate (ARE) p.46, it says: “Qualitative analysis techniques may also be...

Appraisal Simulator, Evaluations, S2155 update, & Recap of Meetings 16

Appraisal Simulator

The industry is working of an appraisal simulator… The US House of Representatives Passed S 2155 today! Section 103 allows for waivers of appraisals by licensed appraisers in certain situations. See the bill here. Other News: Last week The National Association of Realtors held their Real Property Valuation Committee meeting. We have 2 VaCAP members on this committee. Here is a brief over view of the meeting from our representative in attendance. John Brenan with the Appraisal Qualifications Board (AQB) spoke at the meeting and gave an update on the roll back of licensing requirements that went into effect May 1st....

FHFA Working Paper Credibility Questioned by AGA 10

Working Paper Credibility Questioned

NO REAL ESTATE APPRAISER IN THE COUNTRY IS ALLOWED TO MISS THE MARK BY 7.8% WITHOUT RISKING LOSS OF LICENSE! The Working Paper demonstrates more than anything else, that given an 8-hour work day the computer will take 6 full working days (1.2 working weeks) to arrive at a result that is at best 7.8% error prone. Office of the Director, Honorable Melvin Watt Federal Housing Finance Agency… Dear Sir(s) The American Guild of Appraisers is a Guild within the more than 12 1/2 million members, retirees and family members of our parent union OPEIU, AFL/CIO. In addition to representing...

Importance of Including Sales Price Trend Graph in Appraisal Reports 2

Importance of Graphing Sales

Scatter graph can help you “visualize” the trend of sale prices over a time period… Appraisers, I’ve been including ‘comparable’ price trend graphs in my reports (using Excel) since 2008. The graphs are based on a chart of MLS sales in the subject’s neighborhood, and can be from 1 to 5 years prior to the report Effective Date – based on housing density and number of sales. (I work in urban, suburban and rural areas.) A Scatter Graph can help you “visualize” the trend of sale prices over a time period. It can also show questionable outlier sales that you...

Pendings Can Reveal Market Trends - Use of Graphs in Appraisal Reports 5

Graphing Using Spreadsheet – Including Pendings

Pendings can reveal market trends, turns and current activity… Appraisers, How many of you use visual graphs in your reports to demonstrate sales (and Pending) trend data? This can be a very important tool to convince your clients that you really have a good understanding of current valuation issues. I am indebted to David Braun, Patrick Egger, Steve Smith, George Dell, Anthony Young and Joe Lynch (among others) for their presentations about this key feature we can utilize. Frankly, using spreadsheets and their built-in graphing functions is something every appraiser should learn. I bring this up because an appraiser peer was...

Photographs in Reports & 2 Refers 12

Photographs in Appraisal Reports

Photographs, 2 refers & Nat’l RE Appraiser’s Day… I’ve been asked to formally review a recent report. When looking over the report pages, the subject photo pages contain a mix of horizontal and vertical photographs, about half ‘n half. And there are lots of subject photos. Bear in mind, most report photo pages are formatted for horizontal photographs. It appears to me the appraiser used a smart phone for photos, as there would be no normal tendency to hold a regular camera vertically except in rare occasions to emphasize height of some feature. But people do that with phones. The...

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