Is the Iceberg Turning?
Appraisers, it seems this past year has been like furiously paddling against a giant iceberg containing frozen lending assignments in the North Atlantic ocean while in a rowboat with one paddle! The entire 2023 has been one chilling episode in terms of mortgage lending appraisal assignments for appraisers.
While it’s too soon to tell for sure, a giant sea-going tug boat with high horsepower diesel engines powering twin propellers mounted on azipods has arrived on the scene to help direct and push that iceberg into warmer waters, releasing a flood of more assignments!
I read lots of ‘stuff’ relating to our work. One article (written mostly for RE Agents) in Inman News caught my eye, which you can find here:
Hallelujah! Finally, Some Good News About The Real Estate Market – Inman
From the article:
The result for agents and brokers was a deep pessimism and real questions for some about whether a career in real estate was even sustainable. Then, like the sunshine through the clouds, we got some good news on interest rates — and things began to shake loose. They haven’t stopped over the last week,…”
“Mortgage rates continue to retreat from their 2023 highs and would-be homebuyers are seizing the day, with applications for purchase loans surging by a seasonally adjusted 5 percent last week from the week before, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported Wednesday.”
“According to a report published this week by Realtor.com, 7.5 percent more home sellers listed their homes in November 2023 than in November 2022 — the first time the rate of newly listed homes has recorded an annual increase since May 2022.”
So, if you’ve been thinking about jumping out of that rowboat without a life preserver, you might want to wait a bit longer. Everything in life has a cycle associated. The adverse cycle we’ve all been experiencing may be abating, which will mean the number of appraisal assignments should be increasing.
Plus, and I hate to ‘go political’ on you… but just about everything we experience in life is also tied in some way to the actions of politicians and their attendant bureaucrats. We are coming up on another significant election season. That probably will positively affect mortgage interest rates from this point forward, hopefully in a downward trend to enable more property listings and associated purchases. Refi’s could also increase.
Holler up at the tug boat captain, ask for a line, and climb aboard! Let’s watch how the tug directs the iceberg over the next number of months.
Dave Towne on e-AppraisersDirectory.com
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I believe you’re right, Mr. Towne. Real estate is cyclical. The recent/current cycle is not pleasant for appraisers. I am happily pretending to be retired, but It’s gotta be rough for many still paddling with one oar! I trust there are more good times ahead for those with the patience and ability to wait it out. Good article.
Who will refi… sales in the last 1.5 year cycle… which will get waivers per FNMAs allowances. People who missed the boat to refi durning the sub 4% – a small segment, but perhaps a slight increase. The refi market won’t be much to plug the holes in the rowboat.
Surprisingly, for only the first or second time in several years, I did get a refinance assignment the other day. The market conditions should be reviewed under different lights though. For every hundred thousand dollars borrowed at these new rates there is approximately $200 to $300 additional monthly payment. So finally some breathing room for people with low LTV ratios and retirees looking to downsize. We’re never going back to under 4% and if we do, such will create many more problems than solving anything. Always a possibility though. We should cut red tape and let builders and manufacturers produce more with less taxable overhead and fewer applied governmental restrictions instead.
Did you hear of this awesome new truck you can fully customize for only $10,000 dollars? People are going crazy for this one, very strong and positive market acceptance. Just one problem; You can’t buy it or register it here in the USA. This vehicle makes for a perfect situational example of how much constraints too many regulations place on the markets. Americans have been begging for something this simple and affordable for decades, it’s a true retro throwback to a more simple time when just about everyone could customize and fix their vehicles and everyone could afford to buy new. Due to the ever expanding size of government, we’re prohibited from accessing this vehicle state side. Same thing with housing, prices would come down if there was less red tape. The investor class has a vested interest in maintaining high housing prices, because unlike people whom would live in those homes and benefit from low pricing, investors only benefit when pricing stays artificially high. What exactly is wrong with lower prices?
https://www.roadandtrack.com/reviews/a45752401/toyotas-10000-future-pickup-truck-is-basic-transportation-perfection/
I spent days and days online reading articles and forums and comments regarding this vehicle. Truly inspiring. Fully customizable. Cool as all can be. Mod capable. Efficient. Reliable. Low priced. And…. You can’t have one because the transportation administration in conjunction with the tax man said no bueno, you have to pay more to have bigger less fuel efficient vehicles here in the good old USA. For your safety and well being of course… Search IMV 0 on google images, this thing is so frigging awesome. What a shame we can’t all have one. Just like it’s a shame all the young people can’t afford to buy a home. Lowering the rate again could have many unintended consequences.
Sorry, that Toyota truck is ugly as sin, and most people wouldn’t want a vehicle “which makes a Corolla feel like a Bentley in comparison”! Still, we should be able to buy what we want!
Nahh, you have only seen the base version. That vehicle has a million different customization features where it literally can transform into a race truck, an ambulance, a fire support vehicle, a mini camper, lift up or drop down, all the bells and whistles. Search IMV 0 images online, it’s so remarkable. You know how long I’ve wanted an old fashioned window crank instead of the auto tracs which always break? Something easy to swap parts on for a low price… That thing is not a pinto, it’s a marvel of modern engineering and testament to human inginuity. Meanwhile the bozos in the US regulatory structure have proclaimed it does not bring in enough taxes, and the manufacturer not paid the commensurate extortion through regulatory approval application fees, so we can’t have one. You could buy one in Mexico and drive it here, but you’d never be able to register it. But you can still buy an old mazda or pinto and drive a true death trap via grandfathered rules. Our regulatory system is so beyond broken in just about every aspect in every industry. Policy and representation for sale. Where did the liberty go? They keep all the lemmings scurrying around with blinders on demigoging political figures. Have the pleabs right where they belong, captured in a mental prison and open air economic slave camp. If people would quit buying that nonsense, they’d quit selling it.
As long as we have an idiot as President like we currently have in Joe Biden, things will not change. His administration started all the crap I am reading here.
Thankfully Joe (the only SANE candidate without indictments) will be leading the country for 4 more years while the other candidate (Stinky) organizes his presidential library of comic books behind bars.
***This comment was edited by AppraisersBlogs Team for compliance with TOU and our commenting guidelines.***
Only a true communist would vote for Joe Biden and his dictatorship. Trump is the man. Get used to it.
The event, happening again. Are you not entertained?
***This comment was edited by AppraisersBlogs Team. Profanity is edited out because it’s inappropriate within the context of this blog.***
I was warned about no comments on politics on this site. I find this guys comments OFFENSIVE so I donated to Uncle Joe today. Please remove his comment.
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Just so you know, I don’t think Joe Biden is stupid, he has dementia, I only think the people who voted for him are stupid. LMFAO
I will take an honest man in a coma over a LYING thief who sells classified documents to the highest bidder. It’s all about ethics and character… something The Rump has no clue about.
***This comment was edited by AppraisersBlogs Team. Profanity is edited out because it’s inappropriate within the context of this blog.***
Honest. He is so F** corrupt. UKRAINE, CHINA AND IRAN OWN HIM.
***This comment was edited by AppraisersBlogs Team. Profanity is edited out because it’s inappropriate within the context of this blog.***
…when he is removed from every ballot next month by the Supreme Court. I predict that you will be hard pressed to find any on the shelves. Looking forward that day…tick tock.
Inside the mind of madness… Remarkable modern achievements, to be able to successfully program a human beings mind to repeat exactly what they are told to say then purposefully seek out more propaganda to consume. Amazing…
Wouldn’t it all be so simple if we could blame one person for everything that goes wrong?. To believe that, is to acquiesce to a broken mind devoid of logic and reason. Public pretenders and installed puppets. The entire system is corrupt, it does not really matter whom you vote for. Want to play a game?
Hud and the lenders do not want appraisers so there will be fewer appraisers.
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I am glad the moderator stepped in. Appraisers need to be working together not cursing each other. We appraisers have enough problems without internal dissent.