Author: Jonathan Miller

When North Dakota re-applied for a state-wide waiver, the appraisal industry was nearly unanimous in outrage at the audacity of the state to apply for one in the first place because its entire premise was false. Some of the facts brought up by the appraisal industry in opposition that were ignored were: There were more appraisers in the state than there were a decade ago There are plenty of appraisers in the cities Rural appraisers have always been hard to find because the economics make nominally feasible to cover those markets The economics of AMC-gouging of appraiser fees had forced...

On its own, the recent decision to provide a temporary appraisal waiver for the entire state of North Dakota is mind-boggling for a number of reasons and seemed pre-determined: The state has been challenged by the lack of appraisers in rural areas since time began and there are plenty of appraisers in metro areas. The inference is that all states with a lot of rural areas should have to have qualified experts come up with valuations. There is no verifiable appraisal shortage in the state. In most cases the problem is with AMCs and their business model, unable to pay...

I’ve sat in the witness chair as a real estate expert many times over the years. It’s nerve-wracking, but it is also fun and fascinating. My partner in our commercial firm says there is something wrong with me because I enjoy it so much. Consider that something you wrote in an appraisal report six months ago is being discussed now and what you wrote back then is not subject to edits. You have to live with what you wrote. I think the quality of appraisals in the U.S. would improve substantially if all appraisers had to sit in that chair early...

Regulators today are often removing barriers to responsible behavior with the hope of expanding lending activity since falling mortgage rates aren’t the answer. Banks are pushing back and it is instructive to see the way FDIC thought back in 2006. FDIC and the U.S. Treasury have turned out to be very anti-appraiser and are championing ways to automate as a way to replace us. Think about wildly inaccurate Zestimate-like AVMs on first mortgages. Economist, real estate agent and good follow John Wake shares this:

Here is a NAR deck on AVMs (automated valuation models). Here are some recent survey results that show more than half of the respondents indicated, it is either NEVER appropriate or NOT SURE if it is appropriate for a non-appraiser to perform a valuation on a home. So the jury is still out for a third of respondents but a third are absolutely sure it is inappropriate. One can infer that appraisers have an opportunity to convey what AVMs really are to the public.  

In meetings with the National Association of Realtors and The Appraisal Foundation, there was a lot of time spent listening to AVM owners espousing their importance and more sober observations of the pitfalls. One of the presenters seemed to be bragging that 90% of the time, a good Automated Valuation Model (AVM) can be within plus/minus 10% of the actual value. Remember that Zillow’s Zestimate is within 5% of the actual value only 50% of the time. Both numbers are very dreadful and very random inconsistency across the marketplace. But still, there is a place for their use in conjunction...