GSE Pilot Programs Dead

The Costly, Less Accurate & Less Timely GSE Pilot Programs Are Dead!The Only Good Pilot Is A Dead Pilot?

Like my father always told me about having a business partner (see title above).

But I digress.

I have yet another independent confirmation that all GSE pilot programs are now dead under the new FHFA director. Fortunately for appraisers, his biggest concern is risk management and this action seems to confirm this. The GSE pilot programs designed to “improve” efficiencies, such as bifurcation (a spurious solution that is more costly, less timely and less accurate), are dead. Not everyone in the chain of command may be aware yet.

Real Estate Appraising Is Not Rocket Science

But sometimes, with all the regulatory and agency battles, it is treated as if it is. I’m not taking away from the skills that are required to be competent, but I tire of the constant drama being played out that has hijacked the profession from the professionals who are actually doing the work.

Shout out to my good friend and padre Tom who keeps me grounded – otherwise, I will think I’m Neil Armstrong every time my comps are good.

not rocket science

Jonathan Miller
Image credit flickr - katie hargrave
Jonathan Miller

Jonathan Miller

Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts.

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18 Responses

  1. Ryan Campbell on Facebook Ryan Campbell on Facebook says:

    Not much substance here?

  2. Mark Skapinetz on Facebook Mark Skapinetz on Facebook says:

    If they are dead then why are they still being ordered by AMCS, Why are lenders still getting them, appraisers are still being solicited to do them. Where is it in writing or an announcement by FHFA or others stating these programs are dead?

  3. Andrew Voorheis on Facebook Andrew Voorheis on Facebook says:

    Mark why are AMCs and Lenders still ordering the 1004MC? Who knows and I suspect too many people at them are afraid to screw up or don’t know how to think if it is not on the checklist

  4. Matt McCormick on Facebook Matt McCormick on Facebook says:

    Marsha Reel

  5. Jonathan, I sincerely hope you are right but to date other than an unsubstantiated post in a blog I have seen no definitive evidence that the bifurcated garbage is over. Just the opposite in fact.

    Now Freddy has a Form 70H 6-page entry tossed into the mix. Think about that for a moment. A 6-page desktop! Who and WHAT exactly is it that they think they are saving? It is still a 4 to 6-hour job to do it right, assuming non-complex property.

    In any event, I agree with you that what we do is not rocket science…though it is not so dumbed down that mass models or algorithms are able to produce consistent credible results either. Nor can non licensed ‘property inspectors’ adequately analyze property & neighborhood/ competitive market area field conditions.

    Again, like you, I truly hope the silliness is over with GSE’s, though I am just not seeing any credible evidence of it yet nor would I recommend anyone take Calabria’s comments at face value. As with all bureaucrats, it is the message between the lines that is just as important as the ambiguous direct comments.

  6. Scott Taylor on Facebook Scott Taylor on Facebook says:

    Of all the required data in the appraisal. I would think a revamped 1004mc form would be most helpful when completing the market value trends of the neighborhood. How else are you supposed to know if an area is increasing or declining? I guess go back to the old days are check every neighborhood as “stable”.

    • Scott, the MC format was never a good indicator because it was a one size fits all…even when it rarely did. I don’t know where you work but my markets have rarely been ‘stable’ for most of my career when measured annually.

      There was always more than enough statistical data to develop trend conclusions. DataQuick prior to CoreLogic was actually a reasonably reliable source; reporting sfr/condo trends year over year; month over month, by state; region, county, city or even zip codes. If more restrictive markets (such as ‘super luxury) pairing was always a possibility. All of this was coupled with media print articles that had contextual value.

      The 1004MC simply micro managed the ‘how’ we were to measure trends in ways that made it frequently unreliable.

      • Avatar Tom Granito says:

        If they (AMC’S) can just stop ordering them please. I would be slightly happy for now…..

      • Baggins Baggins says:

        1918. People living today can only ponder what a stable market would actually look like.

        I like the MC form. It’s simple, easy, flexible. Now that it’s not mandatory it’s better to include than when it was mandatory. Tech analysis systems are built around it so it’s not going anywhere even if the policy did fall off.

        When considering worth of houses I like the home on a scale argument. Those old brick ranches weigh more than ‘luxury modern’ homes. Value in use. Value in market. Value of materials through the supply chain. There are many types of value. The associated prices may not always have logical relationships among each other. Prestige worldwide I suppose. I’ll take the little one, less overhead expense, thank you very much.

      • Scott Taylor on Facebook Scott Taylor on Facebook says:

        I complete it with every report to help support any time adjustments needed. I actually go into the Matrix system and select the neighborhood boundaries for the 1004MC to capture exactly what is happening in this neighborhood over the last year as opposed to the county or region. I don’t know I just think when prepared correctly it gives the most customized look into the market trends of the subject’s exact neighborhood. I know there are many services that will do it all for you with a click of the button but not sure how accurate those tend to be.

  7. Avatar SB says:

    I don’t expect ANYTHING from these GSE idiots that will improve the efficiencies of our profession.
    They are all in bed with “foreclosure king” Mnuchin who is mostly likely orchestrating another housing crash. All seems like a big “set up”.

    Collateral Underwriter which facilitates all of this uncertainty and bullsh*t has been a complete DISASTER.

    • Baggins Baggins says:

      Ha! A little rage now and then is healthy, if it’s properly directed. The Federal Reserve ‘orchestrates’ as many many happenings in in financially related markets as they can muster. Profiteers merely follow. Shorting the market was so wildly successful last time around. Welcome to the new bubble bust economy, I’m ready, are you?

      The products used to do so are of personal concern. The larger picture is runaway inflation, devaluing currency, creating the need for complex systems, lack of flat tax, inflation requirements necessary to keep an over bloated government running, accomplished on the local level largely through property tax. If housing markets increase x% but inflation actually outpaces that far beyond the inadequate cpi index, who’s actually benefiting? Insiders, first receivers of money, lenders. The IRS is the recapture mechanism to control the volume of the fiat monetary system. Fractional reserve and capital reserve requirements for lenders and all manners of insurers tie everything up nicely and sell the illusion. Actual worthy monetary coverage in the event of a national financial emergency is a steeply negative figure. The entire thing is floating.

      Depending on your perspective, what side of the table you may be on, many of these automated programs are wildly successful. Monopolies are established through restraint of trade. Self asking regulation is when major companies purposefully hinder competition through legislation they publicly object to but actually write themselves then hand off to policy makers for implementation. The vast majority of proposed legislation is written by corporate lawyers. CU and mismo is really something in that regard. Hybrid appraisal products are a mean to that end. Reduced cost of labor, technically compliant work products, exponential increases in management efficiency, participating limitations. Anyone know how high underwriters quotas are for hybrid? I’ve heard even for full 1004’s they are asked to process over 40 a day if not more. What we got here is next gen robo signing. Rather than signing blank pages ahead of time the new new approach is to auto sign essentially the same document at a breathtaking pace and distribute that working model globally.

      Patriot Trading Group. The Liberty Report. There is no such thing as a safe loan. We would not have this swift of a pace with regulatory and product changes if there were fewer loans and less government. Raise your hand if your ltv is under 50%. The government is not here to save us from ourselves.

  8. Avatar cotton says:

    We are all fully aware that bifurcation is just another money making scam being pushed by the GSE’s, AMC’s and lenders. The borrower’s are being charged in excess of $600 for the appraisal and the AMC’s are offering the appraiser $50-$75 to complete these scam reports. This Radke clown at fannie mae needs to be prosecuted for fraud, deception and corruption. Any appraiser willing to complete a bifurcated appraisal needs to be brought in front of the State board for directly harming public trust. GSE’s should not tell appraiser’s what steps we should take in development credible results. The unfortunate fall out of this is going to be the companies who are purchasing these securities from the GSE’s. The collateral assessments of these loans where a bifurcated appraisal was utilized are going to have a massive defect rate which will end up costing the tax payer billions.

    • Baggins Baggins says:

      You understand what the hot news about the repo market failing is all about right? The purchasers of debt continually sell that debt to each other, until they actually stop. Then they lean on the fed for liquidity injection or whatever the new new new new quantitative easing program is called. On the ground level sure we care about products, fees, ethics in billing, that’s appropriate. When considering the bigger picture, if nobody has audited the fed in over 100 years and the 2008 financial crisis resulted in bail outs instead of jail time, you’re absolutely living in a dreamworld if you think any of those people will be prosecuted for fraud. It does not hurt to call for that but don’t hold your breath. Monetary correction is inevitable. The protections against fraud are the law of the land, if anyone cares to actually follow that law is another story entirely. There is no getting even without adherence to the Constitution. It’s a long road because currently the pundits are aggressively throwing out long standing constitutional ideals on a daily basis. That reminds me, I’m getting everyone a constitution and declaration wall poster for christmas, have to remember to order those soon.

      Article 1 Section 10. No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.

  9. Avatar World's Largest Ball of Twine says:

    As Mark Twain once said, “No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot.”


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GSE Pilot Programs Dead

by Jonathan Miller time to read: 1 min