statistics - Appraisers Blogs

NFHA’s False Narrative Undermines the Appraisal Industry

AppraisersBlogs — Fri, 18 Oct 2024 12:30:59 +0000

A barrage of billboards, magazine ads, and TV/radio public service announcements is being used to amplify and spread this false narrative. The latest attack on the appraisal industry is being spearheaded by the National Fair Housing Alliance (NFHA) and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), who are aggressively pushing a false narrative of widespread appraisal bias against Black and Latino homeowners. Through a relentless media campaign employing emotive messaging, vivid anecdotes, and dubious statistics, these entities are painting a picture of widespread, systemic bias among appraisers against Black and Latino homeowners. However, the reality is that not a...

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HUD’s Use of Convicted Felons to Ramp Up ‘Discrimination Testing’

Jeremy Bagott — Wed, 17 Jan 2024 13:30:50 +0000

It wants to bootstrap released felons by allowing them to work as so-called “fair-housing testers” for the many nonprofits HUD provides grants to… If the rule is changed, the HUD-subsidized nonprofits could hire felons to ramp up sting operations against real estate brokers, leasing agents, mortgage loan officers, escrow officers, title officers, appraisers, property managers and others. Few would argue that society doesn’t benefit when convicted felons are rehabilitated and re-integrated. But according to a frequently cited study by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, about two-thirds of released prisoners are arrested for a new crime within 3 years, and three-quarters...

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Majority of Reviewers Had Very Limited Field Experience

Guest Author — Mon, 23 Oct 2023 12:30:55 +0000

It was my experience that the majority of reviewers, FNMA included, had very limited field experience. Which is painfully obvious when they request baseless revisions for “more or better comps”. I’m a Certified General Appraiser that started appraising in 1984, almost 40 years ago! Spent the majority of my career appraising both residential and commercial properties in a major metropolitan market. I had my own appraisal firm for a number of years, prior to the AMC model which dissolved years of relationship building with clients large and small, almost overnight! Like most of you, I really enjoyed appraising and was...

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The Unbiased Reality of Census Tract Data Dump… Open Letter to FHFA

Dave Towne — Tue, 15 Aug 2023 12:30:09 +0000

Folks, the following letter was sent to FHFA by an appraiser I know. It was sent in response to the ‘first’ data dump FHFA made which uses CENSUS TRACT data to try to convince others that appraisers are biased by using ‘people demographics’ contained in Census Bureau info. You can find that ‘dump’ here. The writer of that first FHFA dump was identified by name, and included an email address. So the appraiser wrote a respectful email to Mr. Russell. It turns out, shortly after this FHFA document was released, Mr. Russell left FHFA. So this nice letter sent several...

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And Why Is the Second Appraisal Always the “Correct Value?”

Jonathan Miller — Fri, 09 Jun 2023 12:30:06 +0000

On Friday morning, May 19, I was one of five expert witnesses (and the only as an appraiser) to testify on the topic of appraisal bias in front of the Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC). During the first hour of testimony, our fourth grandchild was born. My wife was in the audience and stepped out of the hearing (the nerve!) to take the call from my oldest son on the news of our new granddaughter. The Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC) held a second hearing on challenges facing the appraisal industry, including barriers to entering the profession and racial bias in home appraisals. The...

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Sale Price vs Appraised Value Disconnect

Dave Towne — Mon, 10 Apr 2023 12:30:15 +0000

How can it be said that valuing a property lower than its eventual sale price based on current market evidence is tantamount to BIAS? The article titled “FHFA Data Fueling Looks into Appraisal Bias” was in the Inside Mortgage Finance Publications e-newsletter on 4/06/23. The Federal Housing Finance Agency is a is a critical provider of the data necessary for oversight, enforcement and research, FHFA Director Sandra Thompson noted during a discussion in late March. According to aggregate statistics from the Uniform Appraisal Dataset released by the FHFA, roughly 57% of appraisals were above the contract price in 2021. Just...

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Under-Valuations Unrelated to Racial Bias

AppraisersBlogs — Tue, 21 Feb 2023 13:30:52 +0000

Under-valuations that more accurately reflect the homes’ “true” value as opposed to the contract price will also alert the buyer, not just the lender, that he or she may be over-paying, which often triggers a renegotiation… when the seller and buyer settle on a new price after the appraisal, the new lower price reduces credit risk, costs to the borrower, and ultimately results in greater wealth for the buyer. The AEI Housing Center recently released an analysis revealing that reports by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and by Brookings, attributing the greater prevalence of under-valuations in home purchase appraisals...

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UAD Composite Property Data Info Released to the Public

Dave Towne — Thu, 27 Oct 2022 12:30:08 +0000

Appraisers, since 2011, the GSEs (called the ‘Enterprises’) have been collecting and analyzing appraisal data using their proprietary Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) which was overlaid on four of the standard GSE appraisal forms, SFR’s and Condo’s only. Ever since then, appraisers and other users have complained that none of that data was available. Well, now it is available, but not highly detailed down to specific properties. See below for the web site link. Some of that data is granular down to specific Census Tracts, which appraisers seldom, if ever, use in their market analysis to determine comparable sales and their...

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Objective Terminology

Dave Towne — Mon, 09 Aug 2021 12:30:07 +0000

Appraisers should avoid using words that lend themselves to bias judgments. Instead, the appraisal report should document objective facts. “Bias” in appraisals has been a ‘hot topic’ around nationwide water coolers since about 2018, and even earlier. The GSE’s are particularly wary of any commentary in appraisal reports that appear to inject ‘bias’ into the value conclusion. In the June ’21 FNMA Appraiser Update newsletter, there is this article: Avoiding problematic phrases Stories in the media about racial bias in appraisals have been on the rise. The Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) expects appraisers to “not perform...

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Can We Trust Regression…

Guest Author — Mon, 19 Aug 2019 12:30:01 +0000

I would like to give a background as to what prompted this article. A few years back, word on the street was that the Collateral Underwriter was going to be using big data collected directly from our reports from the inception of UAD to aid in determining what should be “reasonable adjustments”. In order to be preemptive, I consulted an acquaintance of mine who just so happened to have a PhD in Statistics from Princeton. We worked through a number of real case scenario data sets to try and figure out if there was a way I could use regression...

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Property Selection for Analysis & Statistics

Dave Towne — Fri, 19 Jul 2019 12:30:43 +0000

The importance of proper property selection and ‘statistics’ in appraisals… Appraisers, I would like to direct you to info written by Mr. George Dell in his latest blog post circulated on July 3, 2019. This is one of the best explanations I’ve seen him write on this topic, of how to select and analyze properties when doing appraisals, and why correct ‘statistics’ presented in reports is important. I first became aware of the importance of proper property selection and ‘statistics’ when I attended an appraiser’s training class in 2008 in Las Vegas. The primary speakers were Mr. David Braun and Mr. Patrick...

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Should Appraisers Study Statistics?

George Dell — Thu, 18 Jul 2019 12:30:50 +0000

Yet what was (and still is) presented in appraiser education is the old inferential statistics. Difficult statistics. Convoluted statistics. Statistics for appraisers started to become a hot topic some 15+ years ago. I was more involved with the Appraisal Institute then, and often argued that with the changes in data sources — appraisers would have to learn to apply statistics. Around 2003, the AQB (Appraiser Qualifications Board) revised qualifying education to include the requirement for Finance, Statistics, and Valuation Modeling class. Although I was not solicited to write this class, I was put on the development team, which reviewed and suggested edits and improvements. The...

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What Kind of Appraiser Are You?

George Dell — Fri, 04 Jan 2019 13:30:10 +0000

Skeptical skeptics are a rare breed. But growing in number… Different appraisers have different attitudes! Some have a lot of experience, others a lot of education. Others emphasize the ‘art’, while others consider themselves ‘quants’. Let’s put aside the ‘art’ versus ‘science’ discussion, where the artists say: “No computer will ever replace the appraiser”, or “No amount of education will ever replace experience”. The other side seems a bit confused. There are traditionalists. And there are the “advanced” appraisers. And there are the “vocational” appraisers, who don’t seem to care much about all of this. They just want to push through as many reports as possible. The skeptics tend to doubt...

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Theft of Appraisers’ Data

Michael Ford — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 12:30:33 +0000

…they charge appraisers an upload fee for the privilege of having their data stolen… I would never allow my data to be used for or by a service that specifically uses to create, modify or enhance products designed to compete with my professional services to the detriment of my business and profession. THAT is something that the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals identified when they found that CoreLogic’s subsidiary FNC STOLE appraisers data after promising them data security. FNC stole data. We now know FNMA also stole data. Alamode is delving into individuals own personal databases in order to even...

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Crystal Ball & PFA Techniques

Dave Towne — Wed, 15 Aug 2018 12:30:19 +0000

PFA figures & opaque crystal balls don’t work when reporting market trends! Nor does the MC Form! Appraisers, by now you’ve heard that FNMA finally has decided that their 1004MC form is basically worthless. That form is no longer required in appraisal reports for properties sold to FNMA, as of August 7, 2018. poorly designed form which never has reported accurate trends…However, sidekicks in mortgage lending have not come to the same conclusion… yet. Hopefully, in short time, they will also remove the MC ‘inclusion’ requirement in reports of this awful, poorly designed form which never has reported accurate trends – despite the...

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Appraisal Profession to Grow!

VaCAP Board — Tue, 14 Aug 2018 12:30:00 +0000

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Appraisal Profession is expected to grow 14% by 2026 Quick Facts: Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate 2017 Median Pay $54,010 per year $25.97 per hour Typical Entry-Level Education Bachelor’s degree Work Experience in a Related Occupation Long-term on-the-job training Number of Jobs, 2016 80,800 Job Outlook, 2016-26 14% (Faster than average) Employment Change, 2016-26 11,700 Even the Bureau of Labor Statistics understands the importance of the appraiser visiting the property: Although appraisers and assessors of real estate work in offices, they often spend a large part of their day visiting properties....

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Working Paper Credibility Questioned

Michael Ford — Wed, 25 Apr 2018 12:30:46 +0000

NO REAL ESTATE APPRAISER IN THE COUNTRY IS ALLOWED TO MISS THE MARK BY 7.8% WITHOUT RISKING LOSS OF LICENSE! The Working Paper demonstrates more than anything else, that given an 8-hour work day the computer will take 6 full working days (1.2 working weeks) to arrive at a result that is at best 7.8% error prone. Office of the Director, Honorable Melvin Watt Federal Housing Finance Agency… Dear Sir(s) The American Guild of Appraisers is a Guild within the more than 12 1/2 million members, retirees and family members of our parent union OPEIU, AFL/CIO. In addition to representing...

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Graphing Using Spreadsheet – Including Pendings

Dave Towne — Tue, 15 Aug 2017 12:30:13 +0000

Pendings can reveal market trends, turns and current activity… Appraisers, How many of you use visual graphs in your reports to demonstrate sales (and Pending) trend data? This can be a very important tool to convince your clients that you really have a good understanding of current valuation issues. I am indebted to David Braun, Patrick Egger, Steve Smith, George Dell, Anthony Young and Joe Lynch (among others) for their presentations about this key feature we can utilize. Frankly, using spreadsheets and their built-in graphing functions is something every appraiser should learn. I bring this up because an appraiser peer was...

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The 1004D for Disaster Inspections – Advice

Dave Towne — Mon, 11 Apr 2016 12:30:25 +0000

When Disaster Happens… Appraisers, The phrase “disasters happen” is, unfortunately, all too common. Fires, floods, vehicle accidents, wind storms, hurricanes, tornadoes are all factors that can affect real property. When a local disaster happens, and is officially declared, lenders often ask appraisers to observe the current condition of their mortgaged properties. The assignment date may be days, weeks or months after the declared disaster. The hiccups, hang-ups and head scratching occurs when the lender or AMC asks for a ‘Disaster Inspection Condition Report’ to be done on the wonderful 1004D form. Something it is not designed to do. And this...

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An Appraisal Profession Tsunami is Coming

Guest Author — Thu, 10 Mar 2016 13:30:22 +0000

TSUNAMI! Before the Internet and YouTube, most of us read about or saw a few pictures of Tsunami’s in books. Reading about a tsunami though, will never be the same as actually being in a tsunami, or seeing a video of a tsunami. A YouTube video of the Japanese tsunami of 2011 truly captures what a tsunami is, and how destructive it can be. If you have never seen that video, take a look at it below. People die in tsunamis. Tsunami death pictures can be found all over the internet. But who were those people and why did they...

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