Scientists disagree. That is the nature of progress. Appraisers trying to meet a standard may be the problem.

Values, all values including RE values change, not necessarily up, sometime down, sometimes wallowing.

An advertisement in the paper several years ago revealed a 1964 Chev PU in one of the garages of the dozen or so houses left in the development, Another tract sell out will include a pool in the final phase. 10 years ago appraisers adapted to down adjustments of 3 to 4% per month against recent sales. Twenty years ago New construction buyers might have negotiated an 80% loan instead of the n 95% that they began with in the sales office.

Our historic methods were taught during the depreciation, no sales, only foreclosures, the economy was in a depreciation money was worth LESS every day. Anecdotal comparison, using the few and distant sales were the only method, comparing a farm sale in Oklahoma to a Kansas farm was acceptable (a gross exaggeration) The medical professionals didn’t use statistics until the Teens when Rockefeller invested in a JAMA publication.

Only large government offices had the BIG DATA for stats (The forest Service kept all sales in their card file punch card files thru the 60’s). The Big data began when the MLS’s began consolidating. Big data allowed large brokerages, appraisers, bankers, and investors to plan directions and futures. With Microsoft’s office & MLS any appraiser has big data. The pro with a conscience can document a report with convincing information.

The problem REMAINS; honesty, integrity,
There is Art full science, not to be confused with the Art of science. Remember there are art full appraisers.

And a body of appraisers whom unknowingly dealt with systemic training shortcomings who think the same thing.

Apparently with digital review systems and an army of non licensed reviewers out there providing assurance they are providing quality assurance, the game has changed. Appraisers no longer need to do it right per classic valuation theory. If you have enough comps in there, and at least one of them brackets the final opinion, you’re on the money. If all your field entries are mapped in a uniform manner, data in alignment, pass the review gate.

That verbiage is someone citing collateral Underwriter drivel. I hope you called them on it. The FNMA “peer model” never was peer opinion for specific issues. Its a faulty database derived from a time when line item % adjustments were still the rule. SO now they have a database that thinks patios are only worth $500 to $1,500.

The digital systems will work and work well, when one hardware company finally monopolizes the entire supply chain and everyone builds the same thing, using the same materials, and same contractor standards, when all municipalities adopt uniform code and regulations. Until that time, objective valuation comparison and adjustments will remain as far more of an art than a science.

If we do send you orders, it’s important that we provide best service standards to our lender clients. That’s why we insist that if our amc sends you requests, you also use our report typing development services. It’s only $25 per report and is completed overnight 7 days a week. What extrapolative program are you using to determine and prove your adjustments, because we also offer these at affordable prices as well. The things they try to sell you in the appraisal industry these days.

https://go.housingwire.com/hw-webinar-new-valuation-trends-disrupting-the-industry

1. Common Core Educational programs vs traditional methods
2. Semi or fully autonomous vehicles sharing roads with human-operated motor vehicles;
3. ZAIO

George, it is not resistance to science or even change that bothers many of us. After all, who more than appraisers have been subjected to change than us in the past three decades? Most of our ‘beef’ is not with science, but the two major drawbacks associated with its current promotion in ‘valuation’.

(1) Phony pseudo science hucksters &/or so-called ‘modernists’ [absolutely not you!] such as ZAIO; Mueller Hybrids; ClearVal hybrids, FIrst American/ACI PACE PRO, ALL AVM programs, etc. that falsely claim “their science” is better than everything else; and

(2) Regulatory adoption of ‘science’ as the ONLY acceptable support rather than a recognition that in the imperfect real estate market that is America, science is merely a tool that more often than not does not account for specific buyers or sellers motivations. A former legitimate ‘tool’ (appraisers 30 to 50 years LIFE experience in real estate markets) has been denigrated to the point the worlds best computers may no longer be used in lieu of falty or flawed data because they are ‘not scientific’ enough …even though traditional science can’t begin to figure out how the neural network based brain-computer works.

George before science (big data), & market accuracy or expedited products can be sought and utilized; ALL the peripheral participants need to adopt and apply the fundamental honesty and integrity that is required of real estate appraisal. Otherwise, science simply becomes the shield of chicanery.

This starts from the top down at TAF; to state regulators (following USPAP would be a good start for them); OR even having licensed appraisers as R.E. USPAP compliance “investigators”; it needs to be uniformly adopted by GSEs, Loan originators, ‘loan officers’, brokerages, title insurance companies (how about THEY stay in their own lane for a change?) & advertising that is allowed to be foisted on consumers that have almost nothing honest within it.

In the present environment (political and on Wall Street) plausible deniability is sought rather than scientific advancement. We’ve known of FNMAs CU flaws for over five years yet they are routinely ignored. So too were the original promises that this flawed system would not be used to review or rate appraisers.

George, to date NOT ONE science-based automated valuation system, can reliably produce credible, accurate results across the full spectrum of circumstances that R.E. Appraisers routinely have to deal with.

The flaw with human appraisers is no more than clients STILL being permitted to exceed the license and experience levels of the appraisers they hire…in the interest of greed and ability to ‘manipulate’ transactions.

It’s time to return to 1989 and start over with FIRREA. This time bypass TAF completely and the ability of State Regulators to bypass state legislatures via AARO. In fact, lets not have states enforcing FEDERAL law at all.