Wow, thanks. What are you doing on these old threads? Other posters not as happy with me lately though, I’m going to slow down on the long form posting. Check out this shocking set of data.

https://appraisersblogs.com/appraisers-destroying-goliaths-messaging/#comment-39669

This old comment you responded to, now takes on new meaning…

Especially since FHFA just made the complete CU appraisal repository available to hud and the department of justice. Help me understand what’s going on here, because this seems incredibly alarming. But perhaps I’m not interpreting the issue accurately.

Bags

Best piece you ever produced!!!

Thank you
Pat

Checklist review methodology. Also indicative of internal programs at the specific lender, if they give reviewers enough time to read reports to answer the checklist exception statements required to submit to the CU system, or if they have to process so many reports they just kick everything which is auto flagged back to the appraiser to show they’ve done something.

How Is it being impartial or bias by not taking the time to ask questions, consider all aspects of the transaction , the data, isn’t this in line with USPAP ? otherwise just do an AVM.

Refried refi’s. They’re trying to recreate the event. Don’t get your hopes up for low rates anytime soon though. First we’ll need a credit squeeze to lift a substantial portion of citizens out of those low rate loans, or at least tag them with higher interest credit to accommodate a better debt recapture balance.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

As far as the article, there are many paradoxical considerations. CU could have been better utilized to identify redundancies across a broad spectrum, like identifying appraisers whom flipped unreasonable volume, who’s reports contained all this static repeated content, ie the appraisers whom used typing services and comps sharing, whom flipped unreasonable amc volume and even hosted seminars and classes online how to select comps in thirty seconds. When half of the content in those appraisal reports was basically just identical. That’s what CU system should have been flagging for probationary status.

The CU system could have been a tool for good to bring better balance to an industry rife for exploitation by third party companies and tech firms. Instead the system applied an in the blind expectation where appraisers were held to a peer standard based on the majority group data. Sure, read well on paper but in the real world that data base which was a supposed reflection of the peer standard was constantly eroding in data quality due to the excess imbalance where a small group of aggressive appraisers whom used these tools to produce excess reporting volume, created systemic data deficiencies.

When the volume based appraisers deposited ten CU bound reports for a certain area, if there was a data quality issue, the system inferred that the next appraiser whom provided varied data had to be wrong, being only a single instance of data differential. When three out of four appraisers nationally refuse to provide such volume, and one in two appraisers nationally refuse to even enter data into the CU system.

The best appraisers whom actually performed quality data validation and manually assembled higher quality reporting metrics, were constantly hounded by the mistakes of the appraiser amc flipper volume crowd. CU had potential, but that potential was immediately lost by the GSE’s inability to promote manually orientated higher quality appraisal development efforts, and instead they promoted the amc cost efficient high volume model which rendered the data comparisons to be basically worthless.

They could have parsed data better and the group model could have had weighted differential where any appraiser whom flipped volume would have not had as much influence in the peer model effects. But then they’d have to reconcile those volume appraisers getting constant alert notices, and would have had to actually do something about the amc industry to correct the gross imbalance of appraisal time efforts, compensation, and incredible appraisal request volume disparity.

Big data. Big joke. Qualifying and validating data for real property and the unique situation represented in every loan origination and selling term is far more important than they realized. Attempts to automate the process to create higher quality outcomes will continue to fail. But then again, they don’t mind. Because the goal was never to actually have a higher quality data disposition, but rather to gain control of the mechanisms by which approval can happen, in order to assure a consistently higher quantity of origination. Make real estate morel ike the stock market? Mission accomplished. Checks and balances alongside fair dealings and an honest pay for an honest days work are yesterdays news, a more ‘modern’ approach is being installed.

I love it now that these dumb asses are back asking if these are the best comps I could find.

I love telling them “hell no, I’m saving the best ones for my grandchildren!!!”

Dave, ignorance is not a virtue. I laugh at appraisers with no street smarts. Just because you seek as many facts as you can dig up does not make you a crook.

We may get a little bump when rates start to come down. I started a year before you and remember how folks were refinancing every time rates dropped a percent or more. I recall appraising one home three times in three years…good times.

I’m only 59 and not sure I can hold on another 5 more years.

But changing careers at this age is not easy. I predicted that this would happen though. When everyone refi’s at 2 percent, it doesn’t take a genius to know what will happen when rates go up. But I guess we all were lucky to have a pretty good run the past 20 years. But the party is over. For at least a few years.

AI is just another tool of the trade. Before starting as an appraiser I was in construction for several years, became a RE salesperson then a broker, then combination broker & appraiser, all before licensing. Licensing removed the broker part of the equation. Understanding the “anatomy of a sale” has been removed from most appraiser’s work and analysis. Asking a broker or buyer “what was the motivation to make an offer in this house” is probably the most important question an appraiser can ask, the second question would be “what other properties did you look at”. It provides a strong basis for an appraiser’s analysis. AI , AVMs will never have that information. Remember – each sale is unique.

I am going to deliver pizzas for a living now. It will takes years for the Feds to start lowering interest rates. The entire Real Estate market is and will continue to be destroyed.

The best thing I have done with my life was to tell my kids NOT to be an appraiser. My wife of 18 years now thinks I am a lazy bum because I have no work and wants to leave me. Maybe when I start delivering pizzas 24/7, she will reconsider.

Over the years I’ve seen some very good report, and some very bad reports. I remember one that the only honest information was the property address and the owners name, everything else was a lie. I turned the “appraiser” into the state and he lost his license.

The profession isn’t what it used to be, AI will be taking over soon . To bad, I really enjoyed what I was doing.