Why would you assume he is either smart or knowledgeable? Nothing cited suggests either. He has a vested interest in manipulating whatever system is in place for verifying values.

Didn’t they not even verify incomes b4 the last crash? What could possible go wrong this time?!

True, but there is probably a push for appraisal waivers there.

Agree 100%

I draw an analogy that we wouldn’t want the new nurse doing our heart surgery. The bulk of many people’s wealth and savings is invested in their home, so it is critical that professional appraisers consider the body of knowledge and the behavioral aspects of markets and people in our work; I also say that if and when robots buy homes, then an AVMs will suffice. Again, it is imperative that we visit the property, neighborhood, comparable data, and apply human reasoning after interviewing, verifying and analyzing the trends that are in constant motion. Public records aren’t up to date because so many people remodel and some botch the changes they make which can cause functional problems that impact a property’s appeal. Machines, computers, software, gadgets and other useful tools cannot provide security for a loan without an ethical, educated and experienced appraiser! Ask Boeing how software can crash two planes inside of six months. AI is good for some things, but you can’t take the human element out of an objective valuation.

True. (myth). That is exactly the thinking that got us into TARP in the first place. I remember a mortgage broker (VERY successful) rationalizing loan fraud by saying the statistical probabilities of a particular loan going bad was low. Further that IF it went bad, having the bank sustain a loss greater than the PMII was low. Then beyond that, typing that loss to a specific loan brokers actions OR an appraiser was even lower.

I didn’t do much work for that broker. His big clients were Aurora, IndyMac and the like. None of whom were ever affected by is statistical rationalizations, right?

Excellent points and thanks for clarification Tony.

The issues you raise are exactly the reasons Appraiserfest took a proactive stance on what we CAN do on our own, without waiting for anyone’s approval or permission. That is to approach the consumer direct in all areas in which real estate appraisals are also needed.

The point is not to boycott banks and AMCs. The point is to simply render them irrelevant to the appraisal process by replacing GSE or loan dependent work with consumer-centric work. There is no reason with some prudent planning that the professional real estate appraiser can’t preserve the fundamental principles of our profession OUTSIDE of the automated loan processing industry…and when the Big Data eventually fails the lenders, making them adjust to OUR professional requirements for adequate (HIGH) compensation, PDF delivery reports, and turn around time frames of OUR choosing.

Not directed at you Chris. And they do keep vigalent on policing the bad ones.

I spoke to a guy in the know from a large national lender. They will NOT be doing hybrids as the appraiser has all the liability…of course. Just wait for the buy backs !!!

Hybrids are going no where….as usual with these fly by night antics from lenders trying to make their money without care or concern for the public….

And no one drive comps, lol, lol, lol  Where did half the appraisers go…..those were the idiots that got into our profession by their mommies, daddies, aunts, uncles or cousins who taught them.

I was told by this national lender that that they still see the most absurd appraisals…..and literally said to me…”they have NO idea of what they are doing !”

Still to this day….sad !!!

Wait for the next down turn…its coming…..so why do they need hybrids….hmmmmm.

I agree. Those pesky specifics contained in the Preamble to USPAP; the specific definitions; the specific requirements of SR1 and those damned annoying specifics in SR2…not to mention source provider opinions, 50 different sets of state laws and federal regulations.

I remember when I was an agent a couple hundred years ago, we used to walk tract neighborhoods around listings and eyeball houses and opine as to values. Standard 3 BR  1 3/4 ba G2 back then was $27,500 to $30,000 (upper end). Any of us that missed the group consensus by a $1,000 was teased mercilessly. We got it right about 80% to 90% of the time…of course, appraisers didn’t always agree with us. Then again, WE weren’t bound by standards, cash equivalence or concession rules.

What IS that magical variance range? 10%? 25%; OR could it be as much as 50% which is not an unusual spread for the same property when measured by Zillow; Realtor.com, Trulia and one of the other flakey services I can’t recall right now. THEIR range on solidly supported $650k property I appraised was $490k to $790k+. Acceptable ‘statistically’?

Tony I think we are quibbling over semantics. Technically no one is irreplaceable for anything. We all die and business continues.

The bigger issue is should we be replaced?

We are only ‘replaceable’ by big data to those federal regulatory agencies (including the Treasury Department) or commercial users that have deluded themselves to believe AVMs, hybrids and other assorted happy horse shit is credible.

Agreed. From a 09/30/2015 post here http://appraisersblogs.com/appraisal/free-enterprise-an-appraisal-myth/

More narrowly focused to our profession’s need for C&R fees than to the nation as a whole.

PS – non appraiser morons, imbeciles and self serving bastards dragging our profession down are an exception.

Tony ( Charles A.?) This is not Facebook at all. It’s a serious real estate appraisal internet blog where in over 8,000 individuals including many government employees and representatives come for appraisal information. We learn others views but also get to share our own.

I don’t always agree with Chris or even Baggs, but I respect their views and commitment to the profession. The last thing anyone can do with credibility is accuse Baggs of being ‘uninformed’.

Like all of us humans, passions and intensity of belief can color our posts sometimes. Speaking for myself, I am going to make greater effort not to insult folks. It decreases my own credibility if I am insulting to my peers.

There’s much to what you say about ‘governments’ not serving the People anymore. On the other side of the coin is the absolute necessity, even among scalawags and other professional politicians to be seen as being concerned about the public.

It’s inside this tiny window that opportunity to influence government at all levels, exists.

Speaking of which I want to ask for volunteers to attend Public meetings of the Appraisal Sub Committee quarterly in D.C. at Treasury. Email me mike@mfford.com This is very important. Separate article to follow.

I am way beyond you. You need to catch up. I am simply stating reality, regardless of whether it complies with my wishes or yours.