Very interesting thank you for posting. So you’re seeing these deficiencies by way of new homeowners getting caught off guard and then needing professional services they had not expected to need? Or perhaps an increase in relatively unnecessary pre sale inspection requests? Thanks.

Betcha a hundred million thousand pepsi’s that the FNMA CU data system is not tracking measurable volume differences in associated professional inspection and repair, nor respective warranty repair relationships, alongside their appraisal automation roll outs.

Back in the day it was routine appraisal practice that anything that might be a substantial unexpected cost was immediately noted ‘subject to’ professional inspection and repair advisement in that field of service. Amc’s made sure to put an end to that practice. Appraiser Valuation Independence! (AIR)

I use a 100‑foot ruler. Rulers do not lie. I tried a laser once — if your aim is not straight, so is the measurement. If you go back several listings, homes get bigger, then smaller. That’s the issue: realtors make mistakes. Even public records can be wrong. So what do we do? The system is broken as long as non‑appraisers make the decisions for us.

There are too many groups and opinions to mount a unified strike. I only accept a limited number of appraisals. Fannie Mae and company can take this job and shove it, because they want everyone to believe we are the problem. There is no exact number to pin the tail on the donkey. The issue is that many appraisers — unless you’re an untrained appraiser working as a sales agent or broker — don’t care about this job and work to make numbers. I found that out when apprenticing in New York.

I was once asked if I sold real estate. I told the truth. At that time I had it all. He laughed and said I was the first person he’d seen who could do both jobs and “flip my hat around.” When I moved to Pennsylvania I realized why he said that. It’s true. Every review I received from a bank or other party, I looked at the bottom to see who signed it, and I realized how right he was. Numbers are what they are, but when you distort or ignore them it becomes a different problem.

I recently handled an estate in a rural area. The previous appraiser grabbed three comps and ran. It took me a week to gather the numbers. This rural area had no MLS office. Out‑of‑area agents were selling homes from far away and nobody tried to find the private arm’s‑length transactions. I found eight. Then I looked up their property cards and did my homework. I went back a second year even though the other appraiser said the market was increasing — maybe for him where his office was. What I found about rural markets with very little activity is this: homes are often sold at what the market will bear. There is no inventory.

In my case the township population was 226 people. Think about that number — how many sales do you expect among 226 people in a rural area where large farms take up the space? I did my diligence and did the job correctly.

Sorry Desiree, but that’s not solid logic. We are already placed in a situation where we are underbidding one another because of the amc’s and we never had a union like the other instances you are referring to.

An AVM or AVM developer will never need to be “USPAP Compliant” since USPAP applies to people, not black box algorithms.

AVMs are used occasionally for court matters, such as a divorce, where both sides stipulate to Zillow, Redfin or other App.

They would be unusable in contested legal matters which rely on experts. Regardless of “accuracy”, opposing attorney has the right to depose & cross-examine opposing side’s Experts about their methodology & opinions. This by definition excludes machine generated numbers.

Is suspect but do not know as fact that Bail Bondsmen might use an AVM for real property as collateral.

One day in the future I can imagine “AVM Value” being ubiquitous to “FICO” scores for collateral valuation on a large scale. They could simply use the average of 3 or more AVMs or a similar metric.

FICO Scores are accepted as accurate for determining creditworthiness of borrowers. 800 gets better terms than 650. FICO scores are determined by top secret algorithms, just like AVMs.

‘AI valuation as proposed is simply not real estate appraisal by any recognized definition.’
Thanks Mike. That’s what makes this latest uspap rewrite quite possibly the most radical change to the appraisal standards yet. Policy for sale.

Appraisers whom thought these issues would remain contained in the gse world might be surprised to learn what might happen next. The executive order ‘expanding credit access’ promoting automation in appraisal, continually altered rules and definitions, the uspap rewrite defining AI appraisal as accredited.

Now the automated process can effect appraisal use policy beyond mortgage lending. IRS, courts, insurance, blm, various other governmental and private, SBA loans, various other commercial, etc, etc. How long do you think it will take other non mortgage related users of appraisal services to understand these allowances, ask why they’re still paying full rates when the lending side gets these things done for a fraction of the cost? The AI use allowance now extends beyond GSE guidelines.

How does this affect appraisers like Lyle Gallagher whom successfully challenged his state board and argued the constant uspap rewrites are invalid rule making? He’s bound to the proper original version of uspap or the one latest approval as required by the Texas Administrative Procedural Code. One day, this list will grow through many other states. A missed opportunity if that guy would have fund raised he did not have to settle. Think of the implications for future litigation.

Bunton proposed the avm uspap certification which could be applied without an actual licensed appraiser involved. That did not pan out. The next best thing is finally here. A licensed appraiser rubber stamping the same thing. Uspap certified avm’s, so long as an AI utility is involved. Think of this as the next generation of evals. That is where we are at now.

https://appraisersblogs.com/justice-4-texas-appraiser-ninety-nine-thousand-dollars-price-tag

https://appraisersblogs.com/reindeer-standards-as-unenforceable-as-appraisal-code/

https://appraisersblogs.com/fannie-mae-2-state-of-maryland-drop-dead/

Well said-I started making the shift as soon as 3.6 was announced

Set higher fees! WAY higher!!!

If this gargantuan increase in time and reporting demands it must be a 50% increase at minimum. They cannot enslave us

Ken, you identified the problem.

There is no viable solution. Too little, too late.

Warren had plenty of time to shut this down when her party had control. They were more interested in DEI and vague notions of social equity. In fact THEY were among the first to jump on AI/AVMs as a means of achieving their goals and objectives.

The whores at TAF went right along with MISMO and changed verbiage to facilitate all the desired changes. Protecting/preserving the public trust went out the window a long time ago.

At about the same time, state and federal regulators began accepting “FNMA TIPS; and Investigations in lieu of SR3-compliant appraisal reviews.

They haven’t cared about actual appraisal integrity as a process in quite some time.

You’re right Ken.

More simply, AI valuation as proposed is simply not real estate appraisal by any recognized definition.

At the most fundamental level, it fails to identify confirmed market value transactions vs other types of recorded transfers.

It is going to be 100% arbitrary, with a machine assigning purported ;’values’ for counter tops; 3rd, 4th or 5th baths, unknown weighting to remodeled or updated kitchens and baths with nice, custom tile versus marble, etc. It will be assigning ‘weight’ to items that may qualitatively enhance a property, but for which NO ONE can demonstrate quantified market recognition. Gold-plated faucets, anyone? (Yes, I have seen them. They added ZERO to market value by themself).

How about site topography?

Bottom line is it’s a huge dog and pony show designed to facilitate fraud against Wall Street investors. Investors are currently being lied to about how reliable such systems can be.

WHY would anyone think a corrupt organization like FNMA can change its long held, dishonest practices?

Thanks Retired. Spring is here and you know I love mowing the lawn. Sadly it’s drought year in Colorado, complete with some of the most stringent rules we’ve ever seen. NE municipalities are telling people they can only have gardens if they hand water, no sprinklers, limited space, and they have to get a city permit. To. Have. An. At. Home. Garden. Permits. We’ve got Aurora telling people max two day a week water with increasing fines; warning, 100, 500, 1k, and the new final tier; A year in jail for repeat violations. Your prescribed watering day will be based on your address. Exceptions granted for pud’s and community pools, otherwise at home pools prohibited and can take you directly to the max penalty. South area farmers are reportedly having to leave land untended and many are scrambling to plant low yield crop just to protect the soils, others have to make much more challenging decisions. Add the fertilizer crisis on top. One of these days they’ll be forced to acknowledge the ongoing aerosol particulate and cloud seeding issues which are saturating the soils with aluminum and barium, among other micro biome compromising chemicals. As if the drought is somehow just another coincidence. Another story for another day.

https://catadjuster.org/Careers.aspx

I can see where you’d make the corelation. What’s the comparative pay scale per individual gig? All told w/ drive time, random factor of work availability, etc. Looks like a 1099 staple with far more every day opportunity. I’m liking the entry level aspect for auto claims there. No experience? No problem! Some of them also mention appraisal service but do not seem to solicit for that directly. Probably there is another website area for that. I’m just not sure about staying 1099 though.

You’ll know who’s who on reddit. It’s a mad house with all the familiar people and stereotypical situations. AF on steroids with open option for limitless secondary anon accounts. Be careful where you go, it’s china owned and rife with censorship. Some of the play ball types were kind of upset that I was ‘posting about amc’s on a monday.’ Ha! The formula is simple; Go immediately to character assassination if they don’t agree with the message. There is however a pretty interesting mix of voices there. The near daily; find a mentor thread as well.

https://www.reddit.com/r/appraisal/new/

I’m going to take non profit’s to the next level and open up a free lawn care service for the elderly and infirm. My way in is clear; Simply find the government people whom accept kickbacks to get people moving for daycare and elderly care, propose an alternative grant scheme with a twist. Everyone is in on the fraud. My pal told me in rural NE Colorado there is currently a strike effort consisting of thousands of Somali’s whom are complaining the $29 an hour factory worker packages they were funneled into, is simply not enough. While the native Coloradoans in that same small town are for the most part now displaced and out of work. Imagine seeing that in your own town. These days if you want to be a rebel; Don’t lie, cheat, steal, and drive the speed limit. You might be the only one left taking such an approach.

Another well trained AI summary. Of everything that has already happened.

The problem with AI. The influence and subsequent limitations of the prompt. Lack of imagination and effective strategic formation of real world solutions.

A measure of acquiescence based on algorithmically coded predisposition for acceptance of what has been, less a moral code and subsequent human emotional response which should otherwise bring forward a new revolution, application of real justice.

The missing component; an entire nation of consumers whom are being likewise railroaded through this system.

The regulatory structure exists in part to protect consumers from predatory lending activity. The reason for appraisal licensing programs and appraisal trade groups in the first place.

Now that same structure has been reformed to once again target the consumer for elevated exploitation. Small businesses be damned.

Wake me when anyone goes to jail, when federal racketeering charges are levied, when anti trust and class actions go anywhere.

We’re not in this space out of dumb luck or some inability to navigate the complexities of a changing landscape. A lack of understanding how to apply self serving solutions.

The primary motivation is not ‘how to save yourself.’

This communication rythm is rather dry and not very sophisticated.

Are you actually comprehending what your utility is posting? Leave the consumers behind? They’re on their own? Save yourself by carving out a new working niche?

Accept a new status quo without a fight? I don’t think so. Find the off button. Press it.
___________________

What happened to the CFPB case file? What happened with the class action lawsuits? When does actual reformation of the appraisal trade groups happen? Where is the follow up to obvious and ongoing corruption of the process? An entire nation worth of appraisers whom somehow knows how to work with lawyers, while finding themselves simultaneously incapable of using them for the legal services they are capable of providing? Who’s still buying this?

Appraisers who think they’re insulated from any of this by simply bailing on frt gse origination work, only fooling themselves. An entire country of people. Everyone is somehow affected or at some point goes through this system themselves as a consumer. The changes within the system effect everyone in one form or another. Be that access, higher pricing, lack of balance or fair dealings, concealed fines, fees, pitfalls, data cancer. Or even the immediate predictable activity which is consumers being quite alarmed and taken back when lenders provide them instant pass throughs or situations such as a seller is told they’ll deal with a property data collector instead of a real appraiser. They’re constantly posting on message boards or inquiring what these radical process changes are about and what that may mean for them. Consumers are already concerned during the early stages of these roll outs and rightfully so.

The gse lending apparatus is the cornerstone that drives the entire housing market. As it stands now the system appears to prefer automation as a way to funnel people into untenable situations, only to immediately through the same system capitalize on their hardship by over extending them further or preferably use the system to acquire real property for direct firesale pricing to institutional investors, whom then exploit consumers on an even longer term basis. Where are all the PAVE activists now with all that ‘generational wealth’ and equitable social outcome talk? There has been no reform. There has been no meaningful change. Only familiar forms of predation and exploitation dressed up with new labels. Appraisal modernization.

UAD 3.6 makes that obvious. The explosion of hyper-granular fields—materials, finishes, micro-condition metrics—has nothing to do with how value is actually determined in the real world. It’s not there to help you form an opinion. It’s there to standardize and extract data so machines can learn from it.

That’s the shift:
from valuation to data production.

And the flagging problem you mentioned isn’t a side effect—it’s part of the mechanism. When your correct data gets flagged against bad legacy data, the system doesn’t fix itself—it pressures you. Multiply that across hundreds of new fields and what do you get? A controlled environment where the human appraiser is constantly “wrong” in the eyes of the system.

That builds the narrative they need: humans are inconsistent, the system is more reliable.

Now layer in cross-state licensing. That’s not about solving shortages—it’s about destroying the importance of local market competency. If someone can appraise a market they’ve never set foot in, then the profession has already been reduced to form completion and data input.

And behind all of this is the same driver it’s always been:
lender economics.
Speed. Scale. Cost reduction.

Appraisers were blamed after 2008. Then we were targeted through the bias narrative. Now we’re just being engineered out as an inefficiency.

So let’s talk reality, not theory.

The traditional lender-based appraisal model—especially for tract homes and condos—is becoming a low-fee, high-liability, high-friction environment. More data to input, more flags to fight, more revision requests, more time burned…for less money. That’s not a sustainable business model, especially for experienced appraisers.

Which brings us to the only smart move left—adapt your work, not the system.

For seasoned appraisers, the path is clear:

Get out of cookie-cutter lender work
Avoid tract homes and condos where you’re competing with automation
Stop chasing volume that no longer pays

Instead, lean into where automation breaks:

Complex properties
Waterfront and high-end assignments
Litigation, divorce, estate work
Private clients who need defensible opinions, not checkbox compliance

That’s where experience still commands a fee. That’s where judgment still matters. That’s where you’re not competing with a model trained on your own data.

Because make no mistake—everything being built right now is designed to use your expertise today so it doesn’t need you tomorrow.

So the choice is pretty simple:

Stay in the system and accept being reduced to a data collector working harder for less…
or step outside of it and position yourself where the system can’t replace you.

There’s no rescue coming for the middle ground.

I’ve been out for 17 years and not a month goes by that I don’t find myself pondering getting back in just for pocket change or for the fun of it. Every single time I come to the same conclusion. It makes no sense economically…even for part time work. I ran the numbers on your old lawn care idea however and it does in fact make sense for any appraiser still looking for a exit strategy. Home inspection and CAT insurance adjusters still rank high on my exit strategy list for appraisers. Will check into reddit in the near future.

Great input!

By Kenneth Mullinix

Date: April 2026

Picture this: loans are closing faster than ever, dashboards are green, and valuations are being cleared in hours—not days. Everything looks efficient, modern, under control. Then the cracks start. Quietly at first. Deals that don’t quite make sense. Collateral that doesn’t perform like the data said it would. Pricing that begins to drift from reality. By the time anyone recognizes the problem, the system isn’t just stressed—it’s exposed. And the one group that was supposed to provide an independent check is no longer in the room.

We’ve seen this before.

The 2008–2009 housing collapse didn’t happen because there wasn’t enough data. It happened because valuation integrity was compromised. Pressure to make deals work overrode independent judgment, and risk was buried until it couldn’t be hidden anymore. The lesson should have been permanent: without independent valuation, the system loses its ability to measure risk honestly.

Now we’re heading toward a different version of the same failure.

This time, it’s not about pressuring appraisers to hit a number. It’s about building a system that no longer needs them.
Let’s be clear about what’s driving this.
It’s money.

Lenders operate on volume, speed, and margins. That’s not a criticism—it’s reality. Every step in the mortgage process is evaluated based on efficiency and profitability. And in that framework, the independent appraiser is not a revenue driver. We are a checkpoint. A delay. A variable that can slow the pipeline.
And in a system built around throughput, anything that slows the process becomes a target for reduction.

That’s exactly what’s happening.

The push for “modernization” is being framed as progress—better data, faster decisions, streamlined workflows. But look closer. Automated valuation models, hybrid products, and centralized review systems all move control away from independent analysis and toward lender-controlled processes. With enough data and enough modeling, the message becomes simple: we can do this faster, cheaper, and without you.

Appraisers have been here before, just under different labels.

After 2008-2009, we were the scapegoat. When the system failed, valuation became an easy target, even though the real issue was pressure and incentive distortion across the lending chain. Then the narrative shifted again—to bias—placing the profession under a different kind of scrutiny.
Now the narrative is changing once more.

This time it’s quieter, but more dangerous: step aside.

With enough data aggregation and automated decision-making, the system is being designed to function without independent valuation. Not all at once. Not in a way that triggers alarm. But gradually, in ways that feel like incremental improvement until the role itself is diminished.

This is where the 2008–2009 warning matters.

Back then, risk was hidden by influencing the appraiser. Today, risk is being hidden by removing the need for one. Different method—same outcome. When the party that benefits from the transaction gains increasing control over the valuation process, independence disappears. And when independence disappears, so does transparency.

That is not modernization.

That is risk concentration.

And risk concentration is what destabilizes markets.

What’s more concerning is that the profession is largely fighting the wrong battle. We focus on fees, AMCs, and internal processes—important issues, but not the ones that determine our future. While we argue over tactics, the structure itself is shifting. Control of valuation is moving upstream, away from independent appraisers and into integrated, lender-driven systems.

We’re reacting to symptoms while the foundation changes beneath us.

This is no longer just an industry issue. It’s a policy issue.

If valuation independence erodes, the consequences extend far beyond appraisers. Loan quality, investor confidence, and overall financial stability all depend on credible, independent collateral valuation. That makes this a matter for Congress, not just the profession.

Policymakers—people like Elizabeth Warren—and oversight bodies such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau need to take a hard look at where this is going. Who controls valuation? How is it being determined? And what safeguards are still in place to ensure independence?

Because once those safeguards are gone, the consequences are not theoretical.

They are systemic.

There are practical steps that can be taken now: enforce real fee transparency so appraisers aren’t reduced to commodities, eliminate assignment models that prioritize speed and cost over competency, establish independent review mechanisms, and define clear limits on where automation can assist—but not replace—independent judgment.
This isn’t anti-technology. It’s pro-stability.

Because at its core, this is not about resisting change. It’s about preserving the one element the system cannot function without: trust in value.

Right now, the appraisal profession isn’t being eliminated in a way that sets off alarms. It’s being engineered out of relevance—quietly, gradually, under the banner of efficiency. That’s what makes it dangerous. Systems don’t fail when change is obvious. They fail when change is accepted without recognizing its consequences.
We’ve seen this pattern before. We know where it leads.

The difference now is that the risk isn’t being forced onto appraisers—it’s being designed around them.
If that continues, the outcome won’t be surprising. It will be familiar.

And by the time it’s obvious, it will already be too late to fix quietly.

This is the moment to recognize what’s happening—and to act—before the next housing crisis isn’t a warning, but a repeat.

I really wish you’d show up on reddit r/appraisal sometimes. Use that same screen name so we know it’s you. They deserve no less. Just today; A thread about an appraiser going under, barely hanging on. Had a reasonable workflow then suddenly nothing, ‘unexplainable’. The various amc appraisers show up to brag about their non stop volume and two hour report flips.

What a great industry. Got to hand it to the trade group representatives for being such ethically upstanding people and setting great examples. Buy the book again or lose the license. Reminds me of union strong arming, less even basic union protections. They don’t need the book sales anymore anyways. They’re tied up with the same automated companies and amc which replaced the appraisers.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sick-behavior-financial-psychopaths