It’s safe to appraise right now. Be careful what you wish for, because you just wished for a lifetime vacation from your chosen profession.

“We sent an inspector out to the property and provided the appraiser with that report. However, it’s the appraiser’s responsibility to verify any conclusions relied upon for purposes of this report”.

HITF can you verify from behind a desk????

Listen to what the mortgage industry is saying.

No Appraisals Until 90 Days After Closing? – National Real Estate Post

https://www.inman.com/2020/04/15/banks-can-now-delay-appraisals-for-up-to-120-days-after-closing/

“We simply are not responsible for anything after the effective date and some of that between the effective date and signature date. If the market is going south…well its going south, I am in no position to change anything.” [AP]

The client can always add to the SOW in the engagement letter even if it is a desktop. It’s called Enhanced Assignment Conditions. I always add the engagement letter as part of the report. Charge accordingly.

Let me try this one more time. THE LENDER WANTS A CURRENT FRONT PHOTO FROM THE APPRAISER (not google earth, or the MLS) for a desktop report. I already know what VA/FHA/FNMA have said. The lender is not following the new guidelines. Just like I stated in my first comment. One more time, they want ME TO GO AND TAKE THE PHOTO, understand now?

See my previous response for the Fannie/Freddie position. For the “desktop” option, for Fannie/Freddie, there is no requirement to leave the office.

For sure, agreed. Appraisers sit in an advantageous position in the midst of all of this. We get to simply analyze and measure the data as the information flows in. Navigating the market to set new benchmarks is the realtors and in turn, the lenders responsibility. My point is primarily that people don’t make sensible decisions when they’re panicked or under stress. That’s why appraisers exist, the unbiased participator. ‘ll continue to hold everyone to the same standard as I am accustomed to. I have not needed or requested any special accommodations. Cheers.

I understand what VA/FHA/FNMA have said. If the lender wants a desktop report, but at the same time they tell me to go and take a front photo, that is no longer a desktop. Desktop would imply that the appraiser does not leave his/her office.

The “desktop” option is limited to sales. Even in our “regular” appraisals we rely on (trust) the same kind of data, every day. Comp data typically comes from MLS listings, etc.

It is a personal choice each appraiser. My intent was not to lobby for any approach, but to address an apparent misunderstanding.

Yes, that’s important perspective right now. We’re all living this within our local sphere of influence. Some locations are hit harder than others. Economic effects seems to be related to politics and the ‘decrees’ set forth by local governance. Also related to the scale of most effected services within a state.

People need to understand that the legislative branch, not the executive branch, makes laws and rules. Executive branch decrees on the state level are mere best practices guidelines, and are not law. Judicial decrees as the third branch, were not intended to be the final authority. The Constitution is still the law of the land. People are concerned because they’ve never seen this much government overstep before. They are literally drunk on power.

That’s why we’re saying, get back out there. Liberty is the most essential element which glues our society and our economy together. Those seeking solutions and workarounds without prioritizing liberty first are behaving in a counter productive manner. Some positive new data is in, which is why WHO just got their US based funding cut. Many more people are likely to have this particular patented strain of the flu than initially thought, rendering statistical projections of the death rate to be far lower than expected by orders of magnitude. As long as you’re not in an affected group or have serious underlying conditions, you should not worry. If you have had the flu in the past 5 months, chances are you’ve already developed immunity to this particular patented strain of the flu. Unless you are on your deathbed, you do not need, nor should you for privacy and liberty reasons, get tested. This is incredible over reaction but that’s what happens when people hand all authority to the government.

“We had a problem with Covid-19 (TM). Then as the government stepped in, we have a much bigger problem.”

Every market to some degree will be different Baggins. With local historically high values and what seems to be 5 buyers for every seller, will that ratio continue, NO. But, I’ll bet you a Coke that locally the haircut a year from now will be no more than 15% (+/- $90,000).

It will be a slow drip, but eventually the bucket will turn back over and water will be added.

Seek the truth.

Why should we start trusting anyone else at a time like this when we never did before? Like always, I will only be offering full service complete interior for 1004’s. My decisions are never based on fear, but rather based on trust. My trust level of others and the system in general has not increased, but rather, has been decreased due to necessity of caution. Trust is not given, it is earned. And I don’t like what I’m seeing right now.

Nice theory Bill, and it is the favorite theory of central planners, but sadly no. Factor in quantitative easing of the dollar first. You end up with a negative figure instead. It’s what we’ve been telling home owners, friends, and family for the past decade. These increases in price are not necessarily increases in value. There is just a lot more cash floating around. Our basis of economic output in this country has not increased that rapidly. See the NORM Economics link I posted below. It’s the ‘let them eat cash’ argument.

Good one Bill. The plunge protection team is hard at work. You know many short orders just got stiffed? If the central planners knew what they were doing, none of this would have happened in the first place. Logically, artificially freezing the market in time and only analyzing ‘pre covid’ data is not going to hold up. Enter parity pricing controls in the real property markets. How did that play out for farmers? And how exactly will that relate to a fluid economic climate for those whom enjoy no such parity, facing real time qualification standards as the economy adjusts? All they are doing with moves like that is filling up the dam before it eventually has to spill. Like all actions of central planners whom seek to kick the can down the road, they’re just delaying the inevitable and forcing the future market corrections to be much worse and more devastating than if they were faced and managed immediately.

I bought 200 dollars worth of meat to freeze last night. Each one of those plants they shut down for cleaning processes 5,000 cattle a day. It’s going to be at least 6 months before even such normal commodities as the supply of beef chicken and pork even begin to regain equilibrium with demand. Too many interconnected parts, it’s not just as simple as the farmers supply. That does not even hold a candle to real estate. Nobody is immune to the consequences of central planning and every action the government takes from this point forward will do more harm than good. The market needs time to correct itself. Invisible hand theory will hold up, it always does. Vested interests, the scale of their participation and influence, in the end, will not sway the angle of the return swing. Damocles sword. People should be careful what they wish for.

You might be a little optimistic with a mere 10% to 20% figure. Think firesale pricing as the titans fall. Really glad to have an extra ordinarily low debt footprint right now. History repeats.

https://www.history.com/news/what-was-the-sword-of-damocles

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctrine_of_parity

http://www.normeconomics.org/

What is market value right now? Nobody knows, surely the market is not open and competitive when a state (mine in Oregon) has forbidden open houses. I work in commercial appraising mostly, but have done some residential throughout my career so I would understand housing values and the appraisers who do them. I’ve done everything from a $150K house that needs a lot of work to mansions in Bel Air that cost $150Million to build. The most expensive homes tend to drop rapidly when there is a bailout (1989 & 2008); also lenders require borrowers who develop housing tracts to do them in phases of say, 10 houses at a time, in case the market turns. They learned that when vast tracts of 250 lots were being developed in 1990, and most of the office buildings must be at least partially pre-leased. Now that other professionals are working from home, many employers will realize that they don’t need as much office space for their employees because it is possible to work at home and be productive (I’ve done it for 35 years), and there will be less demand for office space. The last shopping center I appraised (January 2020) had four vacant stores out of 20. I asked them why they had been vacant for so long, they said it was because of “e-commerce”, or retail buying online. Stores like Nordstrom are trying a smaller store with lots of customer service and then they will ship what you buy, and it will save them a lot of money! Anyway, now that they think we are “essential” I think this is a good time to raise you fees to whatever you want, and wear a moon suit to inspect! Remember, no job is worth dying for! Get the covid premium of $500 on top of your fee because you will need to buy more clorox wipes, get a moon suit and take the time to write a long disclaimer that says that the contact for the property has signed a separate document stating that nobody in the home, or property was sick on the date of inspection. I’m not taking any assignment that doesn’t pay me a huge hazard pay because it is just not worth it, especially if you are bidding on a job for an AMC- we never get to find out what they make on our work, so I’d just “SAY NO” to them, then wait and see them go out of business. They make no positive contribution to the assignment, so they don’t deserve a cut of our fees! Perfect time for a strike!

Shooting from the hip, considering home prices are up +/- 50% over the past 10 years in San Diego sb (up +/- $300,000), combined with mortgage payments, many have a few hundred thousand dollars in cushion.

Will it be enough, I don’t know.

Seek the truth.