George Dell - Owner of Valuemetrics & Author of the Analogue Blog

Bias. It’s Easier to Blame the Messenger

George Dell — Wed, 20 Apr 2022 12:30:16 +0000

No one wants to be the messenger… Appraisers are messengers. Why is their message so despicable? So biased? The messenger. Psychology research easily points out our tendency to dislike the bearer of bad news. It’s also intuitive. Bad news messengers do not smile when they bring the news. Sometimes they even look guilty. We humans can be really basic. We see a correlation between the bad news, the frown, and the messenger. Appraisers are messengers. Why is their message so despicable? So biased? In the entire real estate transaction, everyone wants to make a deal. Brokers want to make a...

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Hocus Pocus Magic Focus?

George Dell — Thu, 24 Mar 2022 12:30:44 +0000

Appraisers historically have been sold bogus franchises, software, and other magic solutions. Only $199.95 — Push the enchanted ‘calculate’ button and get ‘correct’ adjustments. Sounds good. It is nice to think that for this small charge, I can save hours and get the right, fully mathematical solution to an adjustment amount. It will be wonderful! I have seen this marketing plan work many times. They imply “We have found the enchanted formula, a secret algorithm, a sly way to calculate adjustments. In a way that no one ever before us has done! Not other appraisers, not AVMs, not even their PhD-economist-statistician-computer-clever programmers have ever discovered before.” The purveyors,...

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Opinion, Estimate, or Prediction?

George Dell — Wed, 08 Sep 2021 12:30:09 +0000

Join George Dell & Craig Gilbert for a free 2-hour webinar on Market Price Indexing: For Peaking Prices… Price indexing is also known by other words, such as time adjustments or market conditions adjustments or trend analysis. A number of techniques have been recommended over the years. Most are flawed. Oddly, the algorithm mechanics of calculating are fairly simple and intuitive. Best of all, once done correctly, the payoff is really high: You effectively increase the data available for comparison. For example, a very similar property is perfect, but is say 20 months ago, it becomes your best comp. It makes other adjustments easier to...

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How Do You Time Adjust?

George Dell — Thu, 08 Jul 2021 12:30:43 +0000

I was able to sort time adjustment methods by data source used (mostly compiled, published reports) and by the analytic used… Time adjustments is a timely topic. Recent ski-jump rises in prices have been ramp-ant in many places. Valuemetrics.info provided a free, two-hour webinar on the topic, and we had almost exactly 1000 appraisers sign up. (Although many did not show – free, you know.) Prior to the webinar, I asked some reviewers about how appraisers were handling the price changes. Also, my friend Steve Smith raised the question on his National Appraisers Forum (NAF) to see what sources they are using to support time...

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Unaffordable Affordability?

George Dell — Wed, 24 Feb 2021 13:30:44 +0000

If we value higher, what about affordability?… A great deal of economic, social, and political talk has been around affordability of housing. To explore this topic, it may be helpful to ask some questions. Good policy starts with the right questions. In simplest terms, some people have the resources to have nice homes in nice neighborhoods, others have just tolerable homes for shelter. And others have no homes at all. We call them “home-less.” More recently, we have become aware of the connection of poor housing and groups of certain ethnic categories. Discovery. There is association between housing status and...

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AVM vs My Opinion

George Dell — Wed, 01 Jul 2020 12:30:25 +0000

AVM versus my opinion… My recent article “Why is Residential Appraisal in Trouble” lays out how the profession and the individual (you?) can prepare for the future. I do not take an emotional position for or against AVMs. AVM is a competing industry for valuations. AVMs have succeeded in taking a large market share for valuations and risk analysis in the past 20 years. Every large lender and our GSEs use them every day. And yes, a machine can only deliver an analytic result, not an opinion! My only mission (Stats, Graphs, and Data Science classes) is to help arm...

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Why is Residential Appraisal in Trouble?

George Dell — Mon, 15 Jun 2020 12:30:02 +0000

Why is Residential Appraisal in trouble? Is Residential Appraisal Finished?… There will soon be no need for residential appraisers. I remember years ago, doing education for my merging AIREA/SREA chapter(s) in San Diego. AVMs were just coming to our attention. I invited a MAI who happened to also be a PhD in economics, Phil Mitchell. The room was full. Someone asked about those “automated algorithmic computer calculated appraisals.” Could a canned program do as well as an appraiser? Without hesitation, he answered: “Not only will these models be able to appraise – they will do it better!” That was 24 years ago. He was right, partially. I...

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Defiant or Compliant

George Dell — Mon, 18 May 2020 12:30:07 +0000

And there is another type of defiant. “The government should stay out of our business…” Believe or don’t believe. Is there a parallel between appraisals and how people respond to pandemic warnings? Appraisal reviewers decide whether an appraisal is “worthy of belief” (“credible”) or not. Similarly, people decide whether to believe in the need for public health orders. Steven Dinkin (president of the National Conflict Resolution Center) recently had some observations on the public’s response to the pandemic, dividing people into two groups: defiant or compliant. What is interesting is that each group has a belief that their thinking is the right thinking. Their opinion is the right opinion. Let’s look...

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What Skills Do I Need Now?

George Dell — Fri, 10 Jan 2020 13:30:18 +0000

Analyst software focuses on analysis – sorting, classifying, comparing, and associating data to turn it into useful information… New technologies require new skills. The bad news is that new data science skills are not taught in appraiser education. The good news is that the new technologies are things an appraiser can sell. Let’s look at the good news! Data science skills include the ability to: Identify the relevant data. Turn the data into useful knowledge. Express the analytic flow to a customer. Who can best collect, analyze, and explain an analysis? Well, it takes someone who understands the subject (the market), the analytics (algorithms), and communication (visuals and summaries). Machines...

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Can Smart Appraisers Make Dumb Mistakes?

George Dell — Fri, 20 Sep 2019 12:30:25 +0000

I am a smart and educated, award-winning appraiser. It is not possible for me to be irrational. Of course not. You can see that. I can see that. A high IQ and education won’t necessarily protect you from highly irrational behavior — and it may sometimes amplify your errors. ~David Robson, in an Excerpt from The Intelligence Trap Oh No! Who is this guy!? Doesn’t he know how smart I am? Why, even my peers have said I am smart. I pride myself on my critical thinking. Even my kids say that! What more proof do you need? Let’s get this straight: I am rational, smart, of...

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Appraisal Reform or System Reform

George Dell — Tue, 30 Jul 2019 12:30:14 +0000

It is my hope that the Subcommittee on Housing, Community Development and Insurance consider long-term impact. The existing regulatory burden, a proven failure, may insure a repeat of the past. The body of a letter to the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services about systems reform. Appraisal reform or Appraisal industry reform? It is critical to understand that ‘appraisal’ does not equal ‘valuation’, or risk analysis, or anything else. It is a precise definition of a nebulous product. The current U.S. House Committee on Financial Services is asking the question: “What’s Your Home Worth? A Review of the Appraisal Industry.” I believe it is...

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Should Appraisers Study Statistics?

George Dell — Thu, 18 Jul 2019 12:30:50 +0000

Yet what was (and still is) presented in appraiser education is the old inferential statistics. Difficult statistics. Convoluted statistics. Statistics for appraisers started to become a hot topic some 15+ years ago. I was more involved with the Appraisal Institute then, and often argued that with the changes in data sources — appraisers would have to learn to apply statistics. Around 2003, the AQB (Appraiser Qualifications Board) revised qualifying education to include the requirement for Finance, Statistics, and Valuation Modeling class. Although I was not solicited to write this class, I was put on the development team, which reviewed and suggested edits and improvements. The...

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Is There an Art in Science?

George Dell — Mon, 06 May 2019 12:30:17 +0000

We know there is science in art. Musical scales. Perspective and the golden ratio. The ordered sequence of a good novel. It’s difficult to be a good artist without knowing, or at least intuitively applying the truths found in the logic. Both science and art reflect our search for the truth. Our primal human nature is to resist the truth, even as it hits us in the groin. Resist the change. Fear. Give up something that has protected you. Something that gives you a place. A belonging. A prestige. An ego. A place where you are respected. Then someone or something comes along and says there is a better way. I...

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Robust & Precise Inspections – Hybrids V

George Dell — Mon, 01 Apr 2019 12:30:43 +0000

No more pesky appraisers blowing up sales commissions & bonuses & salaries… A “hybrid” appraisal is a new name for where the property inspection is separated from the analysis and appraiser’s certification. It is faster and cheaper and… This is Part 5 of a (soon to be, so far) six part discussion of Hybrid Appraisals. Part One, Two, Three, and Four are behind these links. Many years ago, I had several trainees, and as each gained experience and competence going out with me, I first let them inspect homogeneous neighborhoods, with me driving by on the outside to check on locational and optimal use issues. In time, they did...

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Are You Violating USPAP Every Day?

George Dell — Wed, 27 Mar 2019 12:30:24 +0000

Are you in “violation” of USPAP? If you pick comps the old way, you may be violating USPAP every day! The old way of selecting data worked well for the old days. Gather seven or eight that look good, go look at them, make a couple of phone calls, and pick four or five for your report. That was the way I was trained. That was the way the Appraisal Institute courses taught me. When I took the AI demo report course, three words were drilled into me: Explain, Justify, and Support. Then I took the required USPAP course. (Back then it still belonged...

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Should We Raise the Deminimus to $2 Million?

George Dell — Tue, 29 Jan 2019 13:30:21 +0000

Bank regulators are nearing a decision to raise residential real estate transactions appraisal threshold to $400,000 from $250,000, for certain transactions. Perhaps it should be set to $2 Million, or $5 Million. It strikes me that we have two separate taxpayer regulatory/administrative/quasi-governmental organizations working in opposition. On one hand we have the Appraisal Subcommittee and The Appraisal Foundation (TAF), and 50+ state organizations attempting to regulate, license, and control the education of appraisers. USPAP, (Uniform Standards of Professional Practice) is promulgated by the Appraisal Standards Board (ASB) of the TAF. USPAP compliance is required for federally related transactions. USPAP comprises two parts:...

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What Kind of Appraiser Are You?

George Dell — Fri, 04 Jan 2019 13:30:10 +0000

Skeptical skeptics are a rare breed. But growing in number… Different appraisers have different attitudes! Some have a lot of experience, others a lot of education. Others emphasize the ‘art’, while others consider themselves ‘quants’. Let’s put aside the ‘art’ versus ‘science’ discussion, where the artists say: “No computer will ever replace the appraiser”, or “No amount of education will ever replace experience”. The other side seems a bit confused. There are traditionalists. And there are the “advanced” appraisers. And there are the “vocational” appraisers, who don’t seem to care much about all of this. They just want to push through as many reports as possible. The skeptics tend to doubt...

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What Does it Mean ‘Support & Prove’?

George Dell — Thu, 13 Dec 2018 13:30:36 +0000

What we do is subject to uncertainty. I searched the words: support and prove in both USPAP and in The Appraisal of Real Estate”. Interestingly, the word prove is not found in either document in this context. The fuzzier word support is found throughout both. The word ‘support’ seems to support supporting your opinion. How is the word “support” used in the context of making adjustments? I decided the dictionary would provide some support for how the word ‘support’ is used. The results are curious, perhaps troubling. Which comes first: the opinion, or the analysis? Do you support your opinion, or do you come to a result from doing your analysis? As a verb, the meanings of ‘support’ include: suggest the truth...

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What is Truth or Accuracy for Appraisers?

George Dell — Fri, 07 Dec 2018 13:30:26 +0000

Are we supposed to be paid truth-seekers? The appraiser is supposed to be accurate. What is “accurate”? Dictionary meanings say accuracy is “the condition or quality of being true, correct, or exact.” Tell the truth. Can it be? Hmmm. A search for truth. OK. So how do we come to know the truth? Are we supposed to be paid truth-seekers? Cool. I read that there are four ways to “know” truth: Tradition, Authority, Insistence, and Science. Wow! Let’s look at these briefly. This sounds serious! Let’s look at USPAP and The Appraisal of Real Estate. Appraisers have long been steeped in the...

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Is It Possible to “Prove” an Adjustment?

George Dell — Tue, 20 Nov 2018 13:30:26 +0000

We read articles and advertisements on how to prove an adjustment. Is this possible? How wonderful it would be. To prove an adjustment, just push a button and bam! Out comes the correct answer. How could we have we missed this? …prove an adjustment, just push a button…Of course, if such a simplistic and exact answer was possible – anyone could push that button. An AVM run, a BPO agent, an “evaluator”, or anyone else. Who needs all that USPAP competence and integrity stuff? Even a lender-appointed hybridized “field inspector” could just push the button. The whole process could even skip working with the licensed appraiser completely!...

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