So exactly when do they start blaming Appraisers for the higher values in the past year?

Who was Archie ?? a Light heavy weight who fought at both weight classes. after he retired, he used his popularity to assemble a huge group’s of sfr’s for rentals in the 1970s. The failure of these groups wasn’t as popular as the assembly. Isn’t that happening again?

That’s what the guy in the financial update video was saying. That when it comes to these new players in real estate like ibuyers, investment holders, rental holders; that they will not be hesitant to dump all the stock in a downturn like this. So just wait for it, the free fall is just getting started.

What concerns me is the apparent need to list and sell now, in anticipation of getting a better deal later this year or next. That’s a risky play but if we really do get back to a glut of available units with continued free falling price and value, actually realize a 1.5 year marketing period need as he speculated, it’s going to be messy and possibly impossible to simply trade to another home for many people.

This appraisal industry is going to shed half of the remaining people here before too long, volume will not return to previous levels for a very very long time. This is why the appraisal industry has been a consortium of small scale family businesses, which allows us to weather the up’s and downs. Also why the dreams of big money earners, automation focused players, and amc’s are destructive because it was inevitable that growth would stop and the fat need chopped off. I just hope that most of the amc’s will get wiped out too.

I think he is speculating of what may be coming down the road. He may be painfully right and it does raise a legitimate concern

I don’t know a number of things, a few things I do.
California passed a tax basis in about 1978 as proposition 13, it assured the voters that the state wouldn’t eat itself with taxation. The 50 states have a differing view of RE property taxes:
Some appraise every 5 years, every 2 tears some wait for voter action, some use outside private contractors to reassess, and few consider a version of Prop 13. Does Colorado use a Tax with differing ratios for SFR, and mining, or commercial, industrial, etc. does the druggist down the street pay a different percentage for his mary-jane sales office than his ranch, or his abode?
I once appraised a house with sick dog in the back yard which was named mary-jane, the dog was bright green and tall.
I remember years ago when San Franciscans voted to pay their trash collectors higher wages so they could live in town and get to work early. Blessed be those who get to work early.

Market Street doesn’t need M.L.S., even TWS journal doesn’t advertise everything. Our local M.L.S. reports a local market.
Banks and S.& L.s reflect our national financial market. Remember If R.E. is location, location, location, then housing is local, local, local.
Keep paying your REALTOR DUES and receiving M.L.S.
Remember China and other aliens bought financial bonds and stuff, now they are selling them, and regretting them. Remember when Japan bought all the expensive property’s and couldn’t take them home.

It’s confusing and I was conflicted about responding to Mr Midwests position. He has valid points but also it’s not quite as cut and dry in this particular profession. We appraisers as a collective group basically have no representation anymore, although interesting groups like the aga have come forth to plug a portion of the gap. Whatever great focus the AI used to have, appears to have been co opted. They appear to answer to lenders tech companies and the amc trade group lobby now. When an entire industry has no effective representation and is constantly forced to defensive positioning.

Please advise when the fictitious cfpb interpretation of a safe harbor rule pertaining to dodd frank reg z on appraisal independence, customary AND reasonable fees will be rescinded. Amc’s should bill separately and apart from the appraiser for their alleged service contributions. The ultimate magic trick; slash licensed workers fees in half, co opt their entire representative body, employ more managers than those performing the work; job creation. When will the crucial contribution of the only non advocates in the lending process, the appraisers, when will we have our contributory value restored?

Agreed.

Title XI of the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989 requires that any appraisal used in connection with a federally related transaction must be performed by a competent individual whose professional conduct is subject to supervision and regulation. Appraisers must be licensed or certified according to state law.
___________________

Interesting links. I had to google the link to make them work, odd, but they worked with an additional step. Per the copied statement above from the websites you linked; Except if you’re a tech company whom millions of people rely on your avm utilities, no license necessary. Except if you’re an individual owning or managing the unnecessary third party amc companies promoting alternative valuation products, running unlicensed inspectors, unlicensed administrative review, no license necessary. As the Appraisal Institute is currently forming an ‘avm certification program’, to assist with illusionary compliance, promoting the total destruction of what independent full service appraisers remain.

I’m convinced the majority of agents are overly reliant on avm utility, which all the big brokerages have some form of that. I’ve seen auto generated cma’s which were 80 pages long. And now they’re price slashing after only a week or two on market, having been mindlessly conditioned for many years to expect 10 days or less in the age of tech. The faster they scramble, the faster the market falls. It’s the pending i buyer and corporate investors dump of housing stock which will really get the water in the bowl swirling faster. This will harm residential interests but the big corps will achieve calculated profit via write offs which will be helpful and necessary to them as other instruments fail as well.

There is no such thing as residential housing anymore, it’s all commercialized. Automated time saving inventions in realty have been devastating to the well being and financial security of individual American home owners. They should be slowing this down not speeding up the process. Trust the algorithm, just like they do on wall street. The bureaucracy is not confusing, when one grasps the excess size of these government systems in the first place. Does government even need or deserve to have any influence in the housing market? Their involvement acts as a liability shield for all this corporate exploitation. The people whom set up and subsequently direct and manage these government systems were never qualified to manage them in the first place. They have no skin in the game, as it were. Somehow I think we’ve seen this cycle before…

Perhaps watch this if you’re not too busy while you’re working. Found this randomly but it’s fascinating. Topics include; rapid unraveling of the housing market, ibuyers throwing in the towel and price slashing in unprecedented short periods, how corporate holders will influence the market in novel ways we’ve never seen before, softening rental which may also crash, cash flow analysis for investment, jumps in listing volumes, trends, etc. Everything they said could not and would not happen, but we were always worried were real possibilities.

Basically it’s not looking good and realities of the ‘restorative value’ hypothesis is that there will be restoration but not in the ways these pundits presume. We’re on the verge of restoring affordability and consistently lower price and values across the board as this bubble deflates. Think 2019 values as just the starting point for necessary market corrections, and then incredibly dynamic and challenging conditions after that with growing market uncertainty. Pump, dump, rinse, repeat. See it yet?

BINGO!! And while I’m not sorry and may offend Mr. Midwest appraiser and his AI allegiance…. Show me where these organizations as they were under oath and more or called out that didn’t put their heads down and just decided to do what others told them instead of sticking up for the good of the profession? It’s clear in all the immediate diversity and training and more that’s now out there. Yet they had a chance to take a stand and failed. They instead saw this as an opportunity to save face.

AI+TAF+ASC = collusion. Simple.

What’s funny is everyone looks at AI as being the Gold standard and all they continue to do is nothing but make sure they are accepted and create new scholarships, new programs and more. Easy way out. Simple . Shame that so many bright people would rather pander and give in than speak their minds. Not surprising.

Sure. But who’s going to foot the bill?

The heart of the matter is that certain people are trying to force an entire industry to accept and adopt a position within entitlement and welfare programs.

Call me old fashioned, but I thought that was someone elses department.

The only place for a “restorative value” would be at the Mortgagee level.

They could develop a factor for the variation between higher priced and lower priced neighborhoods call it a restorative factor. They would then develop their “Restorative Value” and offer a borrower the ability to borrow based on th Restorative Value

This would eliminate the push on Appraisers to mislead clients on the value of the collateral.

Oh I understand the ineptitude of the ruling class. Giving up is sad but I’m there!

Haa Haa Haa!! Sorry to laugh but… you’re correct but… DC is practically their own country, especially considering who is running these “committees”. The last public meeting I saw was a true crap show and that was 3+/- years ago. Watch this hearing – at your leisure. Hybrid Hearing – Devalued, Denied, and Disrespected: How Home Appraisal Bias and… (EventID=114561)

and this classic from 2019..

But aren’t we the Feds? Don’t we own Fannie and Freddie?

A big amen to this!!!

A brilliant shining bright coming soon sign backed by congressional, big corporate, trade groups, and government funded think tank advocacy. As some propose it’s just fake news. Missing the IVPI proposal yet? Those independent privileges you currently enjoy. They won’t last long under the newly proposed total industry reformation program. And you’ll never leave the desk either, eventually wondering why you don’t get benefits, paid days off, a raise or any other working benefit, eventually. I believe appraisers have already posted stories of this content being pushed in continuing education and appraiser based seminars. If I recall correctly, one of the ‘teachers’ got up and left in a huff as all the area appraisers droned on about valuation theory derived from the past few centuries of actual market valuation practice, refusing to accept the premise that restorative value is a valid concept to begin with. But what happens if such an approach becomes the industry standard? Will you decline all ML assignments? Would that not be yet another verifiable example of restraint of trade? As if holding orders hostage until appraisers slash the fee in half, while not returning cost of savings back to the consumer was not enough or an ethical challenge…

My position, like many other concerned appraisal industry advocates whom actually understand and abide ethical guidelines is simple; When do our voices get to be heard by those driving this industry? When do we receive fair representation? When will the systematic exploitation of this industry and stated end goal of eventual abolishment of our hard earned careers be halted? My question to any and all appraisal industry applicants (which call up often as I’m sure any licensed appraiser knows about from personal experience), is simple; Why volunteer for the abuse? We will continue to refuse to train as long as REVAA has sway over this industry.

https://www.workingre.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/IVPI-Proposalfinal.pdf