Coldwell Banker once did a study covering twenty five years. I learned of it when I was last licensed as an agent in 1984. It was consistent with my own observations as an agent from 1970-1974 and again from 1984-88.

That study showed that 90% of all listings that are considered by the market to be within 5% of their market value, will sell within 30 to 90 days. Further that those considered to be within 10% of MV would sell within 6 months. Those more than 10% over MV would never sell; or would not sell until the market actually caught up to them. Even then, negative exposure could be a factor. I’d like to see them publish that study again. Though old, its long lived.

The ONLY way to judge listing to sale price ratios is to review closed sales of listed properties. The expired listing period prior to the price at which the property finally sold is simply a period when it was over priced and NO percentage adjustment could be applied that would be supported or supportable for that prior period.

Each MLS publishes sold statistics. The 1004MC (as bad a form as it is) also enables one to draw partial trend conclusions-sometimes.

I rarely provide more than three closed sales for non complex properties. The ONLY time I also provide a listing, is if I feel one is needed due to a characteristic needed for comparison that could not be found in the closed sales available. Pending sales are ALWAYS better potential comparables than active listings.

Mandatory requirements from AMCs or idiot lenders, dictating four closed sales; a pending sale and an active listing is reckless micro management that usually yields LESS analysis, rather than more. The appraiser is in too much of a hurry then due to the added (unnecessary) work, rather than having the time to explain their reasoning on three or possibly four legitimate comps.

In an increasing market, where the closed sales are either weak, or the concluded value is at the extreme upper end of the range; a listing comparable can have validity when it is the lowest or near lowest listing available and it’s asking price is at or above the sale price / appraised value.

Anything else is gratuitous and meaningless data to make a report look like it is more reliable than it actually is.

When I have identified and used the three most relevant sales there are; the inclusion of a 4th or 5th LESS relevant comparable does not add to the credibility of my conclusions. It detracts from them.

I am a highly trained, general certified appraiser professional. LET ME DO MY JOB, as I have been trained to do it by other appraisal professionals!